141
FXUS64 KBRO 170325
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1025 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
HEAT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN TEXAS GRADUALLY SLIPS NORTH OF OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY TUESDAY.
RESULTING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS PROBABILITIES OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO LESS THAN 15% THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD, MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE GULF
EXTENDS TO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS, INCREASING PROBABILITIES FROM
A LOW (20%) CHANCE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO A LOW-MEDIUM TO LIKELY
(30-50%) CHANCE EACH AFTERNOON BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NEAR AVERAGE PWAT VALUES TREND UPWARD TO
NEAR AND ABOVE AVERAGE (> 2.0 INCHES). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN ALONG THE SEABREEZE
BOUNDARIES, OCCURRING LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES NEAR AND EAST OF US-281. CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO BE BRIEF IN NATURE, THOUGH ABLE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONGER GUSTS.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
UPPER 90'S ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-69 E WHILE
NEARLY WIDESPREAD LOWER 100'S CONTINUE TO THE WEST. AS CLOUDS
INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
90'S. MID 80'S TO LOWER 90'S CONTINUE FOR THE ISLAND AND COASTAL
AREAS, RESPECTIVELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70'S INLAND AND LOWER
80'S NEAR THE COAST PERSIST. MOSTLY MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4), WITH
POCKETS OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4), HEAT RISKS MAINTAIN INTO MONDAY BEFORE
RANGING FROM MINOR (LEVEL 1/4) TO MODERATE TUESDAY AND ONWARD.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES REMAIN BETWEEN 100-110 DEGF, WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SURPASSING 110 DEGF FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE IN THE MID AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY, THOUGH LIKELY
KEEPING BENEATH SPS CRITERIA.
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 00Z TAF'S, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. AT MOST, GUIDANCE ONLY
INDICATES A LOW (10-15%) CHANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG
OVERNIGHT, BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF'S AS MOST SHORT RANGE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO NOT PORTRAY FOG DEVELOPING, LIKELY
RESULTING FROM EVAPORATION THAT OCCURRED TODAY. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS PICK BACK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 18-21 KNOTS,
POSSIBLY HIGHER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-3
FEET) SEAS BECOME LIGHT TO GENTLE, AND VARIABLE AT TIMES, WITH
SLIGHT (1-2 FEET) SEAS BY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE
OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE (20-40 NM) GULF WATERS ON
TUESDAY, BECOMING A DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE ACROSS ALL
LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST OF
CONVECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 96 79 96 / 0 10 0 10
HARLINGEN 76 98 75 98 / 0 10 0 10
MCALLEN 79 101 78 102 / 0 10 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 103 77 103 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 81 88 / 0 10 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 93 78 93 / 0 10 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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