404
FXUS64 KBRO 180352
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1052 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
DESPITE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES, THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS
CONTINUES TO FEATURE A WEAK MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SHIFTING WESTWARD AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH MONDAY, WITH POP'S REMAINING BELOW 10%. MEANWHILE, MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING EXPANDS OVER THE GULF, BRINGING AN UPWARD TREND IN
MOISTURE, WITH PROBABILITIES INCREASING FROM A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY TO A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%)
CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A 20-40% CHANCE ON THURSDAY. LATER
IN THE WEEK, A TROUGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD,
FURTHER ELEVATING PWAT VALUES TO NEAR AND ABOVE 2.0 INCHES,
RESULTING IN A 30-50% CHANCE ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND BRIEF IN NATURE, OCCURRING ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
ALONG AND EAST OF US-281/I-69 C, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN
COVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND. AS PWAT'S INCREASE, ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS WET PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK, THOUGH POTENTIALLY BEGINNING TO SHUT OFF AS RECENT RUNS
OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT AN EASTWARD EXPANSION OF
THE MID-LEVEL HIGH RESIDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH MID 80'S AT THE BEACHES, MID TO UPPER 90'S ALONG AND
EAST OF I-69 E AS WELL AS NEARLY WIDESPREAD LOWER 100'S FURTHER WEST
AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. FOLLOWING, CLOUD COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES
OF RAIN INCREASE, RESULTING IN 90'S ACROSS ALL OF INLAND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND, WHILE MID 80'S
CONTINUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MOSTLY A MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4)
HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A MINOR (LEVEL
1/4) TO MODERATE HEAT RISK WEDNESDAY, THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT MONDAY AS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 100
AND 109 DEGF, THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE HIGHER APPARENT
TEMPERATURES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS TEAM, HEAT INDICES
ARE BORDERLINE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CRITERIA FOR MONDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY, THOUGH NOT
AS HIGH OF A LIKELIHOOD AS TODAY.
THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEYOND SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS ONLY
INDICATING A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM FOG
TONIGHT, HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE A FM GROUP AT KHRL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITY BY 08 Z, AS WELL AS A TEMPO FOR THE POTENTIAL OF BRIEF
IFR VIS. BETWEEN 10-12 Z, DUE TO HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND LIGHT
WINDS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE AT KMFE AS WELL, BUT
PROBABILITIES AND CONFIDENCE ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 12/13 Z MONDAY AND MODERATE
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND
10-15 KNOTS, GUSTING TO NEAR 18-22 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE, MODERATE AT TIMES, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
SLIGHT (1-2 FEET) SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, LEAVING FOR FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS. DAILY PROBABILITIES
OF BRIEF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TO A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE
TUESDAY, INCREASING TO A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) CHANCE OVER THE
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 96 78 97 / 0 10 0 20
HARLINGEN 75 97 74 97 / 0 10 0 20
MCALLEN 78 102 78 101 / 0 10 0 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 102 76 103 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 89 80 89 / 0 10 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 92 77 92 / 0 10 0 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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