657
FXUS64 KBRO 181818
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
118 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
A SHIFT TO A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL BRING DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE (<20% THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO
30-50% WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON), WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG AND EAST
OF US 281. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS THROUGH
THE WEEK, PULLING IN MOISTURE TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. PWAT VALUES
OVER THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE SUMMER,
BUT HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN OUR MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.
AS RIDGING TRANSLATES WEST IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK, MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ORIGINATING FROM TROUGHING OVER
ECONUS WILL PROVIDE FORCING TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER. FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND, MODERATE RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA PERSIST, HOWEVER, DETAILS IN WHEN AND WHERE ARE TOO
FAR OUT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. CURRENTLY, THE HIGHEST POPS
(30-50%) ARE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
GUSTY WINDS.
WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES COMES INCREASED CLOUD COVER, AT LEAST
FOR TUESDAY ONWARD. WHILE MUGGY CONDITIONS HAVE NO INTENTION OF
SLOWING DOWN, LACK OF SOLAR HEATING DURING THE DAY WILL KEEP
"FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOONS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN WE'VE FELT FOR THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS. ALONG THE RIO GRANDE,
MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW- TO MID-100S, IN KENEDY
COUNTY/ALONG US 77, TO 110 THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DESPITE BEING
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, IT IS IMPERATIVE TO CONTINUE
PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY, STAYING HYDRATED, AND ENSURING YOU HAVE A
COOL PLACE TO REST IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
HEAT SAFETY, VISIT: WEATHER.GOV/HEATSAFETY
LOWER TEXAS BEACHES CAN EXPECT A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE CYCLE. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY MODERATE
FLOW THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LESSEN UP OVERNIGHT
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING IS TOO
LOW TO DENOTE IN TAFS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
A MEEK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT SEAS AND GENTLE
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, BECOMING MODERATE IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS WITH LAND-SEA BREEZE. CONDITIONS BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, WITH MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IS WEDNESDAY, AT 30 TO 40 PERCENT. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DEGRADED IN ANY STORMS OVER THE WATERS, WITH GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 95 79 96 78 / 10 0 20 20
HARLINGEN 98 74 97 74 / 10 0 20 20
MCALLEN 102 78 101 78 / 10 0 20 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 103 77 103 77 / 0 0 10 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 79 88 79 / 10 0 10 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 77 92 77 / 10 0 20 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK
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