990
FXUS64 KBRO 191755 AAC
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1255 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETREAT INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY
LATE WEEK, AS HURRICANE ERIN SWINGS BY THE US EAST COAST. THIS
LEAVES WEAKER PRESSURE AT 500MB ALONG THE WESTERN GULF. MOISTURE
BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK COASTAL
LOW AND TROUGH PERSIST ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THIS HELPS SET
UP MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
OVERALL, THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH FLOW AT THE SURFACE,
LEAVING THE SEA BREEZE TO BE THE MAIN CATALYST FOR INITIAL
CONVECTION AND MEANDERING OR COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HELPING
TO SPREAD THE COVERAGE. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALSO INCREASES THE FLOODING RAIN THREAT. AT THE MOMENT,
WPC HAS KEPT A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BARELY REACHING INTO
ZAPATA COUNTY.
SEVERAL CAMS WERE HINTING AT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WORKING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS AND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY OR
UPPER VALLEY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE
GUIDANCE HAS DIMINISHED THE THREAT SOME THIS EVENING, BUT WOULD BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES LIMIT PEAK HEATING AND STIFLE
INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AND HOT TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
GRADUALLY DROPPING A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND LOWS REMAINING WARM. EXPECT A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
HEAT RISK EACH DAY. PATCHY SHALLOW FOG OR FIELD FOG MAY DEVELOP
EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
RANCHLANDS AND COASTAL COUNTIES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF A FEW NOTABLE MENTIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AND MAY
BRING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING TO ANY
SITES THAT FIND THEMSELVES UNDER A SHOWER. ALONGSIDE SEA BREEZE
SHOWERS, AN MCS OVER SOUTHERN TX IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWESTWARD,
BRINGING A FURTHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO STAY FURTHER WEST THAN SITES, BUT SHOWERS/STORMS AT
MFE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TOMORROW MORNING, FURTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA, MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE
DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
A MEEK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT SEAS AND GENTLE
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, BECOMING MODERATE IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS WITH LAND-SEA BREEZE. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE DEGRADED IN ANY STORMS OVER THE WATERS, WITH
GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 96 79 94 78 / 20 20 30 10
HARLINGEN 97 74 96 73 / 20 20 30 10
MCALLEN 101 78 99 77 / 30 20 40 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 102 77 99 75 / 30 30 40 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 80 88 80 / 10 20 20 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 77 91 76 / 20 20 30 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...69-HEK
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