001
FXUS64 KBRO 192319 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
619 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
REST OF TODAY...HOT TEMPERATURES AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND. A MCS TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON IS
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AND, IF IT IS ABLE TO SUSTAIN
ITSELF, CAN BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WPC HAS PLACED NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
KENEDY AND BROOKS COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, AND RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1-2" PER HOUR ARE
POSSIBLE. SATELLITE- DERIVED PWATS IN COASTAL COUNTIES OF 1.9-2"
SUPPORTS THIS (INLAND COUNTIES RANGING FROM 1.6-1.8"). HI-RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE SPREAD OF HOW WELL THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE
TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE PRIMARY
TIMEFRAME FOR ANTICIPATED SHOWERS IS THIS AFTERNOON INTO LATER
THIS EVENING - 9 PM OR SO. DESPITE UNCERTAINTY OF COVERAGE, I'VE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 40% IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ALONG WITH THE MCS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER, AND
MAY CONTINUE TO FORCE FURTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF US 281/I-69C. MESOSCALE
INTERACTIONS BETWEEN OUTFLOW OF THE MCS AND SEA BREEZE ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THIS EVENING AS THE TWO INTERSECT. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
FORM ARE CAPABLE OF BRINGING BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND PONDING, GUSTY WINDS 40 MPH (UP TO 50
POSSIBLE), AND LIGHTNING.
WEDNESDAY ONWARD...DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN CHANCES WITH THE SEA
BREEZE CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS RIDGING OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TRANSLATES WEST, MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER. FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, MODERATE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA
PERSIST, HOWEVER, DETAILS IN PRECISELY WHEN AND WHERE SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ARE TOO MESOSCALE TO
PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. THE GREATEST CHANCES ARE LATE THIS WEEK -
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY - UP TO 60% IN NORTHERN RANCHLANDS, AND 30-40%
IN THE RGV. THURSDAY, NORTHERN ZAPATA COUNTY IS IN A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 1 OF 4).
WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES COMES INCREASED CLOUD COVER, AT LEAST
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE MUGGY CONDITIONS HAVE NO
INTENTION OF SLOWING DOWN, LACK OF SOLAR HEATING DURING THE DAY WILL
KEEP "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOONS A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN WE'VE SEEN FOR THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS. DESPITE BEING
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, IT IS IMPERATIVE TO CONTINUE
PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON HEAT SAFETY, VISIT:
WEATHER.GOV/HEATSAFETY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SEA BREEZE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
A MEEK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT SEAS AND GENTLE
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, BECOMING MODERATE IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS WITH LAND-SEA BREEZE. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE DEGRADED IN ANY STORMS OVER THE WATERS, WITH
GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 94 78 96 / 20 30 10 20
HARLINGEN 74 96 73 98 / 20 30 10 20
MCALLEN 78 99 77 101 / 20 40 10 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 99 75 101 / 30 40 20 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 88 80 88 / 20 20 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 91 76 93 / 20 30 10 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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