861
FXUS64 KBRO 210354 CCA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1054 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
OVERALL, THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED.
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT REMAINS REDUCED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, ALLOWING FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US AND GULF
STATES WHILE A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS PLACES OUR REGION NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF RIDGING ALOFT.
AS SUCH, AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RIDGING PASSING OVER THE CWA
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MAY LIMIT SEABREEZE CONVECTION TO A LOW (10-
20%) CHANCE ACROSS THE MID/LOWER RGV AND COASTAL COUNTIES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%)
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS
FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY FROM A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE INCREASED MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES NEARING
OR EXCEEDING 2.0 IN.) AS WELL AS SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN CONVECTION
DROPPING AT LEAST 0.25-0.50 INCHES OF RAIN FOR MANY LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE RAINFALL. SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH OR MORE.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) INCLUDES THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ZAPATA, JIM HOGG AND BROOKS COUNTIES, AS WELL AS THE NORTHERNMOST
PORTIONS OF KENEDY COUNTY, WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WHICH COULD RESULT IN MINOR INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN, DEEPER UPSCALE GROWTH
OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY, AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK,
COULD RESULT IN LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30-40 MPH,
WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING GUSTS UP TO 50-55 MPH;
CONVECTION INTERACTING WITH THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY AND/OR OTHER
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD RESULT IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PASS OVER
THE REGION, BRINGING A LOW TO LIKELY (30-70%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I-69C/US-281. ELEVATED PWAT
VALUES (> 2.0 IN.) LOOK TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS WELL OVER THE
WEEKEND, CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN, POTENTIAL MINOR FLASH
FLOODING, LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. FOLLOWING, THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS
TO PULL OUT, REDUCING POP'S FROM 30-50% ON MONDAY DOWN TO AS MUCH AS
A 20-30% CHANCE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG SEABREEZE
BOUNDARIES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS THE MID-LEVEL
HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS.
NEAR AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES (UPPER 90'S AND LOWER 100'S INLAND)
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST, DESPITE COOLING BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT MONDAY AS BUILDING CLOUDS AND
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90'S
FOR NEARLY ALL OF INLAND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80'S
CONTINUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN ADDITION TO WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHTS, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE MID TO UPPER 70'S AND
LOWER 80'S AT THE COAST. DAILY AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY
TO RANGE BETWEEN 100-107 DEGF ACROSS THE RGV AND COASTAL COUNTIES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE RISING BACK CLOSER TO 109 DEGF BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MINOR (LEVEL 1/4) TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4)
HEAT RISKS CONTINUE, BECOMING MOSTLY MODERATE BY NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
GENTLE TO LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A LOW (15-20%) CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITY, LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS, BUT PROBABILITIES AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO TO INCLUDE
WITHIN THE 00 Z TAF'S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, VARIABLE AT TIMES, AND
SLIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, LEAVING FOR FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS. PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING WITH A DAILY LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGER CONVECTION COULD
RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS AND ENHANCED
SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 78 96 78 96 / 10 10 10 30
HARLINGEN 73 97 73 97 / 10 10 10 40
MCALLEN 77 101 78 100 / 10 20 10 50
RIO GRANDE CITY 76 102 78 99 / 20 20 20 50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 89 80 88 / 0 10 10 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 92 77 93 / 0 10 10 30
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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