126
FXUS64 KBRO 111109
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
609 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS DUE
TO A LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY, AMPLE MOISTURE, AND WEAK
IMPULSES MOVING OVER THE REGION. BEST TIMING FOR ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. NBM CONTINUES TO OVERDO PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS SO HAVE ONCE AGAIN LOWERED TO THE 20-50% RANGE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FINALLY
EXITS THE REGION BUT A COASTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO SET UP ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST EXPANDING TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL EACH DAY WITH HEAT INDICES OF
100 TO 105. HEAT RISK WILL BE GENERALLY MINOR (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4)
WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4), MAINLY ACROSS THE
LOWER AND MID VALLEY, FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY....WHILE FLYING CONDITONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THE 12Z TAF CYCLE WITH A FEW MVFR CLOUDS AROUND, THE MAIN
WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
FOCUS ON SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWER TRENDS. THE LATEST SFC OBS, RADAR,
AND SATELLITE DATA REVEALED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PARTS
OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY EXTENDING OUT INTO THE GULF WATERS
UNDER A SCT-BKN DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS AND CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES
RANGING BETWEEN 2,000-5,000 FEET AGL. THESE CLOUDS/SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND IMPULSES NEARBY.
WHILE COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY GREATEST OVER THE GULF WATERS, EXPECT
FOR COVERAGE IN SHOWERS TO INCREASE INLAND OVER THE REGION IN TIME
AS RADAR, SATELLITE, AND WEATHER MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST. EXPECT FOR
THIS ACTIVITY, WHICH WILL COME IN WAVES, TO PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASED SFC BASED
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING COULD INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SOME
THUNDERSHOWERS. THAT SAID, HAVE VCSH HEADLINES THIS MORNING AND
PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
TERMINALS.
ANY OF THESE HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS THAT MOVE OVER A
TAF SITE WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITIES OF BRIEFLY REDUCING CIGS/VSBYS
TO MVFR/IFR AND COULD RESULT IN GUSTING VARIABLE (VRB) WINDS UP TO
35 KTS. OTHERWISE EXPECT FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH A FEW
MVFR CIGS AROUND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DEVELOP OUT OF
THE EAST BETWEEN 5-10 KTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT, WINDS
WILL TREND TOWARDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
ON THE WATERS OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 92 78 91 78 / 50 40 60 50
HARLINGEN 94 74 93 74 / 40 30 50 30
MCALLEN 96 77 95 77 / 50 20 70 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 96 75 95 74 / 40 20 70 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 81 87 82 / 40 60 60 60
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 77 90 77 / 30 60 60 50
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...68-MCGINNIS
LONG TERM....68-MCGINNIS
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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