499
FXUS64 KBRO 111755
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1255 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVER THE NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DAILY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (ROUGHLY 20-50% EACH DAY) TO THE REGION. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OFFSHORE, WHICH HAS CAUSED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OFF THE COAST, WITH SOME
OF THEM MAKING THEIR WAY ONSHORE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT CONTINUED ELEVATED MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, A COASTAL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK TO OUR SOUTH OFF THE MEXICAN
COAST, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UNSETTLED WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. BECAUSE HUMIDITIES ARE HIGHER, THERE
WILL BE ELEVATED HEAT INDICES AS HIGH AS THE MID TRIPLE DIGITS. HEAT
RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERALL MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR THE REGION,
BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERING OF MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT
RISK AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, GETTING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
SCT TO BKN VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, AS DAYTIME HEATING RAMPS UP. AWAY FROM CONVECTION, NO
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT, LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL TRANSITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES POST-SUNRISE
TOMORROW. MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
WHICH COULD RESULT IN INCREASED FETCH OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN ROUGHER SURF AT AREA BEACHES WITH A SLIGHTLY
INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. TONIGHT'S RIP CURRENT RISK IS LOW,
BUT TOMORROW'S RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
MODERATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE MMM MMM MMM MMM / 40 60 50 50
HARLINGEN MMM MMM MMM MMM / 30 50 30 40
MCALLEN MMM MMM MMM MMM / 20 70 30 40
RIO GRANDE CITY MMM MMM MMM MMM / 20 70 20 40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND MMM MMM MMM MMM / 60 60 60 50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL MMM MMM MMM MMM / 60 60 50 40
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99
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