259
FXUS64 KBRO 111928 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
228 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
MINOR CHANGES TO DISCUSSION BELOW
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVER THE NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DAILY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (ROUGHLY 20-50% EACH DAY) TO THE REGION. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OFFSHORE, WHICH HAS CAUSED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OFF THE COAST, WITH SOME
OF THEM MAKING THEIR WAY ONSHORE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT CONTINUED ELEVATED MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, A COASTAL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK TO OUR SOUTH OFF THE MEXICAN
COAST, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UNSETTLED WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. BECAUSE HUMIDITIES ARE HIGHER, THERE
WILL BE ELEVATED HEAT INDICES AS HIGH AS THE MID TRIPLE DIGITS. HEAT
RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERALL MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR THE REGION,
BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERING OF MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT
RISK AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, GETTING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
WHICH COULD RESULT IN INCREASED FETCH OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN ROUGHER SURF AT AREA BEACHES WITH A SLIGHTLY
INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. TONIGHT'S RIP CURRENT RISK IS LOW,
BUT TOMORROW'S RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
MODERATE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
SCT TO BKN VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, AS DAYTIME HEATING RAMPS UP. AWAY FROM CONVECTION, NO
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT, LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL TRANSITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES POST-SUNRISE
TOMORROW. MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND LOW WAVE HEIGHTS (2 TO 4 FEET)
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OVERALL FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME OF THESE COULD HAVE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30-40 MPH, WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY DETERIORATE
MARINE CONDITONS IN THEIR DIRECT VICINITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 77 91 78 91 / 50 60 50 50
HARLINGEN 74 93 73 93 / 30 50 20 40
MCALLEN 77 95 76 95 / 30 60 20 40
RIO GRANDE CITY 74 95 74 95 / 20 50 20 40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 81 88 / 60 60 50 40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 90 77 90 / 50 50 40 40
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...99
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