274
FXUS64 KBRO 122359 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
659 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DAILY RAIN CHANCES TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. BECAUSE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA, LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND, WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR ALMOST ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
TOMORROW, AND A 20-30% CHANCE ON SUNDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP OFF THE MEXICAN GULF COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHICH WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS, COMBINED WITH
THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE, DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO NEXT WEEK. STARTING MONDAY,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TO AROUND 40-50% FOR AREAS CLOSER TO
THE COAST AND AROUND 20-30% FOR AREAS EAST OF US 281/I-69C. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR ALL
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, AND BECAUSE THERE IS GOING TO BE SOME HIGHER
HUMIDITIES WITH ALL OF THE MOISTURE, THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
HEAT INDICES. HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF
4), WITH SOME SMALL POCKETS OF MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) SPRINKLED IN.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
GETTING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MODERATE RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, AS A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND SHOULD CREATE A STRONGER OCEAN FETCH,
RESULTING IN STRONGER SURF CLOSER TO THE SHORE. MOST RIP CURRENT
DEATHS OCCUR ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST DURING MODERATE RISKS, SO
AREA SWIMMERS WILL NEED TO REMAIN SITUATIONALLY AWARE AND EXERCISE
CAUTION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TEMPO HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR TOMORROW, BASED ON THE HRRR MODEL, FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND LOW WAVE HEIGHTS (2 TO 4 FEET)
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OVERALL FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
GULF WATERS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. SOME OF THESE COULD HAVE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30-40 MPH, WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY DETERIORATE
MARINE CONDITONS IN THEIR DIRECT VICINITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 77 91 77 91 / 50 40 20 30
HARLINGEN 74 93 72 94 / 20 30 10 20
MCALLEN 77 95 76 97 / 20 40 10 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 74 95 73 97 / 20 40 0 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 88 82 88 / 50 40 30 30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 90 77 91 / 40 40 20 30
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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