309
FXUS64 KBRO 132221
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
521 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SATELLITE-DERIVED PWATS THIS MORNING SHOWS A BOUNDARY OF DRY AIR
DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS, FUNNELING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. WHILE THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION AND THE
COUPLE SHOWERS THAT WERE ABLE TO PUSH INLAND INTO CAMERON COUNTY
HAVE LIMITED SURFACE HEATING, THIS SHOULD NOT BE AN OBSTACLE FOR
CONVECTION TO INITIATE ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE (SATELLITE DERIVED PWATS 1.7 TO
2").
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTING WESTWARD WILL FUNNEL IN DRIER AIR
ALOFT, REDUCING SUNDAY'S POPS TO LOW (<30%). EARLY IN THE WEEK,
COASTAL TROUGHING TO OUR SOUTH SETS UP. THIS, PAIRED WITH A TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US TRANSLATING EAST PROVIDING SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES OVER SOUTH TEXAS MIDWEEK, WILL MAINTAIN A DAILY LOW TO
MODERATE CHANCE (30-60%) OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. EXPECT A
SIMILAR PATTERN SEEN THIS PAST WEEK, WITH SHOWERS OVER THE GULF IN
THE MORNING WORKING THEIR WAY INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
GREATEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE EACH AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ALONG THE
COAST AND RGV. SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY, LEADING TO PONDING IN
LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE, AND/OR URBAN AREAS. GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS.
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS INTO NEXT WEEK (OUTSIDE OF HAZARDS BROUGHT BY
DAILY CONVECTION) ARE COASTAL HAZARDS; PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE GULF HAS BROUGHT ELEVATED SEAS. WITH HIGH TIDE (1:25 AM
SUNDAY) FORECASTS BETWEEN 1.5-2 FT, THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND WARRANT ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT TO GENTLE OR
CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING BACK UP TO MODERATE BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ONLY A 20-30% OF A
QUICKLY-PASSING AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY FOR
KBRO, DESCRIBED IN THE PROB30.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN BRINGING DAILY LOW TO
MODERATE (30-60 PERCENT) CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOWEST SUNDAY MORNING AS DRY AIR
ALOFT IS FUNNELED OVER SOUTH TEXAS. BY MONDAY, EXPECT DAILY MODERATE
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK AS A COASTAL LOW SETS UP NEAR THE GULF
WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 77 92 77 91 / 10 30 30 60
HARLINGEN 73 95 73 93 / 0 20 10 50
MCALLEN 76 97 75 95 / 10 20 10 40
RIO GRANDE CITY 74 97 73 95 / 10 30 10 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 88 81 87 / 10 30 50 60
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 90 77 90 / 0 20 30 50
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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