896
FXUS64 KBRO 141732
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1232 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
A DRIER, MORE COMFORTABLE DAY WITH RH VALUES OF 50-60% IN THE VALLEY
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-90S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AS A CORRIDOR OF DECENTLY
MOIST AIR TO OUR SOUTHWEST EXPANDS EAST, AND AS SHOWERS WITHIN ARE
USHERED NORTHWESTWARD. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS STILL LOW, 30%
OR LESS, PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER VALLEY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.
PERSISTENT COASTAL TROUGHING WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BUILD, RETURNING
US TO NEAR-NORMAL PWAT VALUES FOR MID-SEPTEMBER. THIS, PAIRED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL US TRANSLATING EAST PROVIDING SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES OVER SOUTH TEXAS MIDWEEK, WILL MAINTAIN A DAILY LOW TO
MODERATE CHANCE (30-60%) OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. EXPECT A
SIMILAR PATTERN SEEN THIS PAST WEEK, WITH SHOWERS OVER THE GULF IN
THE MORNING WORKING THEIR WAY INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
GREATEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE EACH AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ALONG THE
COAST AND RGV. SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY, LEADING TO PONDING IN
LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE, AND/OR URBAN AREAS. GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS.
AT LOCAL TEXAS BEACHES, PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF HAS
BROUGHT ELEVATED SEAS. INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS WILL MAINTAIN A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
PRIMARILY VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE 18Z CYCLE. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AT MFE AS SHOWERS
OVER MEXICO HEAD NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. MONDAY MORNING,
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS MAY CREEP THEIR WAY INLAND OVER BRO
(30%) AND HRL (LESS THAN 30%) AT THE TAIL END OF THE CYCLE,
TEMPORARILY BRINGING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PERSIST EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PERIOD,. COASTAL TROUGHING WILL BRING DAILY
LOW TO MODERATE (30-60 PERCENT) CHANCES OF RAIN. RAIN CHANCES ARE
LOWEST TODAY AS DRY AIR ALOFT SITS OVER SOUTH TEXAS, WITH A CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, MOISTURE
RETURNS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT DAILY MODERATE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
ONWARD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 92 77 91 76 / 20 30 60 30
HARLINGEN 94 73 93 72 / 20 10 60 20
MCALLEN 96 76 96 75 / 20 10 50 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 96 73 95 72 / 40 10 30 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 81 87 80 / 10 40 60 50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 76 90 76 / 10 30 60 30
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK
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