453
FXUS64 KBRO 151725
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1225 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, AS WEAK DISTURBANCES TRANSLATE ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGING ALOFT AND INTERACT WITH FAVORABLE
MOISTURE CONTENT AND THE SEA BREEZE. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAILY LOW
TO MEDIUM (20-60%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS COASTAL TROUGHING PERSISTS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE BEST
TIMING FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING, MAINLY LATE MORNING INTO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT GIVEN
THE SET UP, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF WATERS
AND IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY ACTIVITY
ARE GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND LIGHTNING.
OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER, MOSTLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY HELP WITH THE HEAT, AT LEAST BRIEFLY.
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS BEACHES, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE ON LOCATION AND TIMING
IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MORE THAN VCSH/VCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY ACTIVITY IS LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITY AND/OR
CEILINGS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO
PERSIST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT
DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) RAIN CHANCES OVER THE GULF WATERS
AND LAGUNA MADRE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 76 91 76 91 / 10 30 30 50
HARLINGEN 72 93 72 92 / 10 30 30 60
MCALLEN 75 95 75 95 / 0 20 20 50
RIO GRANDE CITY 71 95 71 95 / 10 20 10 40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 80 87 / 20 30 60 60
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 90 76 89 / 10 30 40 60
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...22-GARCIA
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