314
FXUS64 KBRO 161719
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1219 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL IMPACT OUR REGION STARTING TOMORROW, WITH
PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS,
ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS, SHOULD
SUPPORT MODERATE 40-60% RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EVERYDAY THIS WEEK, PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF US281/I-69C.
IN ADDITION, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP AND REMAIN
PREVALENT SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION IN MEXICO. WE COULD SEE SMALL
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES SLIPPING AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF
THE RIDGE DOWN INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, WHICH WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LESS IMPACTED BY COASTAL CONVECTION. THE RANCHLANDS COULD
SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS HIGH AS 30-40%. IN ADDITION, A WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE GULF COAST TO OUR SOUTH
BY THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL ALSO HELP CONTINUE THE RAINY PATTERN INTO
NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONAL THIS UPCOMING WEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGHOUT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EACH DAY.
HOWEVER, HIGHER HUMIDITIES DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE WILL CAUSE
MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4) TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONAL (LOW TO
MID 70S) AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD BE OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY.
A SUSTAINED LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE GULF SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CREATE A STRONGER FETCH/ROUGHER SURF AT AREA BEACHES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE RIP
CURRENT RISK, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A DANGER TO AREA SWIMMERS.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. SWIMMERS WILL WANT TO
MAKE SURE THEY CAN RECOGNIZE A RIP CURRENT IN THE WATER AND REMAIN
SITUATIONALLY AWARE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT IN THE
TAF PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND LOW WAVE HEIGHTS (2 TO 4 FEET)
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO NEXT.
THEREFORE, OVERALL FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30-40 MPH, WHICH
COULD TEMPORARILY DETERIORATE MARINE CONDITONS IN THEIR DIRECT
VICINITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 91 76 91 77 / 40 60 60 50
HARLINGEN 93 72 92 73 / 30 40 50 30
MCALLEN 96 76 95 76 / 20 20 50 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 96 71 96 73 / 20 10 40 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 79 87 80 / 40 70 70 50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 75 89 77 / 40 60 60 40
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
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