344
FXUS64 KBRO 162309 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
609 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL IMPACT OUR REGION STARTING TOMORROW, WITH
PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS,
ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS, SHOULD
SUPPORT MODERATE 40-60% RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EVERYDAY THIS WEEK, PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF US281/I-69C.
IN ADDITION, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP AND REMAIN
PREVALENT SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION IN MEXICO. WE COULD SEE SMALL
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES SLIPPING AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF
THE RIDGE DOWN INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, WHICH WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LESS IMPACTED BY COASTAL CONVECTION. THE RANCHLANDS COULD
SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS HIGH AS 30-40%. IN ADDITION, A WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE GULF COAST TO OUR SOUTH
BY THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL ALSO HELP CONTINUE THE RAINY PATTERN INTO
NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONAL THIS UPCOMING WEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGHOUT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EACH DAY.
HOWEVER, HIGHER HUMIDITIES DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE WILL CAUSE
MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4) TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONAL (LOW TO
MID 70S) AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD BE OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY.
A SUSTAINED LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE GULF SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CREATE A STRONGER FETCH/ROUGHER SURF AT AREA BEACHES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE RIP
CURRENT RISK, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A DANGER TO AREA SWIMMERS.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. SWIMMERS WILL WANT TO
MAKE SURE THEY CAN RECOGNIZE A RIP CURRENT IN THE WATER AND REMAIN
SITUATIONALLY AWARE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TEMPO HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR WEDNESDAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS, AND IS BASED ON THE HRRR MODEL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND LOW WAVE HEIGHTS (2 TO 4 FEET)
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO NEXT.
THEREFORE, OVERALL FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30-40 MPH, WHICH
COULD TEMPORARILY DETERIORATE MARINE CONDITONS IN THEIR DIRECT
VICINITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 77 91 76 91 / 60 60 60 70
HARLINGEN 72 91 73 92 / 40 50 40 60
MCALLEN 76 94 76 95 / 20 50 30 50
RIO GRANDE CITY 72 95 73 96 / 10 40 20 40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 86 80 87 / 70 70 70 60
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 75 89 76 89 / 60 60 50 60
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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