210
FXUS64 KBRO 190000 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
700 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 645 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE, A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES OVERHEAD, AND DAYTIME
HEATING LEADS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING
INTO NEXT WEEK. BEST TIME FRAME FOR PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMARILY
COINCIDE WITH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY AND ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. HIGHEST CHANCES OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND
EAST US 281/I-69C THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MIGRATE WESTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH
THE EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOONS,
COULD BE HEAVY WITH GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING, AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES OF 3 TO 4 INCHES PER
HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AND COULD LEAD TO SOME NUISANCE FLOODING,
PRIMARILY ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. PORTIONS OF WESTERN
CAMERON AND EASTERN HIDALGO COUNTIES WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
THIS AS THEY EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY.
NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER. HEAT INDICES WILL STAY BELOW 105 DEGREES WITH A MINOR
(LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) HEAT RISK. MONDAY AND TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT INDICES INCREASE TO
105 TO 110 DEGREES, WITH A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OUR OF 4) HEAT RISK.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT AREA BEACHES OVER
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD, THOUGH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRIEFLY PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. HIRES MODELS DEPICT
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY OF THESE SHOWERS
IMPACTING A TAF SITE, THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT
BRO. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE
PROBABILITY IMPACTS AT ANY OF THE AIRFIELDS WILL STILL REMAIN LOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
ON THE WATERS OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 76 90 76 92 / 40 50 30 50
HARLINGEN 72 92 71 93 / 20 40 10 40
MCALLEN 76 95 76 96 / 30 40 10 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 73 96 72 96 / 20 40 10 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 87 81 87 / 40 40 40 50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 89 75 90 / 30 40 20 40
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...68-MCGINNIS
LONG TERM....68-MCGINNIS
AVIATION...60-BE
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