008
FXUS64 KBRO 041119 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
619 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 616 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
- LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED AT LOCAL BEACHES
THIS WEEKEND.
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MFE ON MONDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY, INCREASING IN COVERAGE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MEANDERS SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF THIS WEEKEND INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT 500MB
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE TOWARDS THE COAST EACH NIGHT AND
INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF LOWER
PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, STILL
MAINLY OFFSHORE TO THE COAST INTO THE MORNING AND INLAND WITH THE
SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON, REACHING THE BRUSH COUNTRY EACH
EVENING.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WARMING A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, EVEN
POTENTIALLY MAKING A RUN AT RECORD HIGHS ON MONDAY. WITH THE
INCREASED HUMIDITY, HEAT RISK VARIES FROM MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4) TO
MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4), MAINLY ACROSS THE RGV.
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THIS WEEKEND, WITH AN INCREASING SWELL AND PERIOD ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF. LONG PERIOD SWELL CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
LEADING INTO THE NEXT FULL MOON AND HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES,
WHICH COULD NARROW BEACHES NEAR HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
VFR TAF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF
PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
A LONG PERIOD SWELL HAS REACHED THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND EXPECTED
TO CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS COASTAL
AND OFFSHORE WATERS WITH GENERALLY LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE, AS WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
WORKS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. WATERSPOUTS MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR
ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE APPROACHED MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
SUNSHINE AND PEAK HEATING CAN RUN UNABATED TO ANY ISOLATED SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY FURTHER INTO THE VALLEY AT MFE. THE
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MFE ON OCTOBER 6 IS 99 DEGREES
FROM 2016, WHICH IS ALSO THE CURRENT FORECAST. THERE IS A
THINNING 2 DEGREE SPREAD FOR BRO ON MONDAY, WITH FORECAST HIGHS OF
94 AND A 125 YEAR RECORD OF 96 LOOMING FROM 1900. HRL WILL ALSO
BE IN THE MIX MONDAY WITH A RECENT RECORD OF 96 FROM 2016 AND A
CURRENT FORECAST OF 94 DEGREES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 90 73 92 75 / 20 10 10 0
HARLINGEN 91 71 93 71 / 20 10 10 0
MCALLEN 94 73 97 75 / 10 0 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 95 70 96 72 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 79 86 80 / 20 10 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 73 89 74 / 20 10 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...64-KATZ
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