850
FXUS64 KBRO 041746
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1246 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS BEACHES
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY, INCREASING IN COVERAGE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
DAILY LOW (20% OR LESS) PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-69E, AS A WEAK
MID LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY TRANSLATES FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. THIS MORNING’S 12Z SOUNDING MEASURED
A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.67 INCHES, WHICH IS JUST ABOVE
THE 50TH PERCENTILE ACCORDING TO SPC’S SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY.
MEAGER MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH BRIEF, HEAVY RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
ARRIVE BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXPECTED TO RANGE NEAR OR ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE. IN
COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND THE SEA BREEZE, LOW TO
MEDIUM (30-60%) RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY REGION WIDE.
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL RESIDE CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, COINCIDING WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, WITH A MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4) TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT
RISK.
FOR THE LOWER TEXAS BEACHES, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING. USE CAUTION IF YOU’RE
PLANNING TO SWIM IN THE WATER. IN ADDITION, WE’LL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, MAINLY DURING
HIGH TIDE, DUE TO INCREASING SWELL/PERIOD AND PROXIMITY TO THE
FULL MOON AND HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. EXPECT
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FEET OVER THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND 2-4 FEET NEXT WEEK. DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM
(20-60%) RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY ENHANCED
WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY WITHIN ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
WATERSPOUTS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 73 92 75 93 / 0 10 0 10
HARLINGEN 70 93 71 94 / 0 10 0 10
MCALLEN 72 96 74 99 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 69 96 71 99 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 86 79 88 / 10 10 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 72 89 74 91 / 10 10 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...22-GARCIA
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