131
FXUS64 KBRO 050324
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1024 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS BEACHES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, MODERATE RISK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT ALONG LOWER TEXAS BEACHES
SUNDAY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY, INCREASING IN COVERAGE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN NON-ZERO (ALBEIT LOW,
LESS THAN 20%) CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY ALONG THE COAST.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST ARE COASTAL
HAZARDS. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT,
AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY DUE
TO LONG SWELL PERIODS AND ELEVATED SEAS. A FULL MOON ON MONDAY,
OCT 6TH, COUPLED WITH THE MOON NEARING ITS PERIGEE, WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES. THIS, ALONG WITH ELEVATED SEAS AIDED BY
EASTERLY FLOW, BRINGS THE RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TO GULF
FACING BEACHES AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE SUNDAY (2:56 AM, 2:06
PM). THIS WILL LEAD TO RUN-UP NEAR OR TO THE DUNES, MAKING BEACHES
NARROW - EXERCISE CAUTION AT BEACHES. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOWER TEXAS BEACHES ON TODAY FROM MIDNIGHT TO
6 PM.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO MODERATE (40-60%) BEGINNING TUESDAY AND
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER
THE GULF AND S TX WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES OF
RAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
EXPECT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
(UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST) AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S (RANCHLANDS)
TO MID 70S. A MINOR RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, CLIMBING TO A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
BY MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES FEELS-LIKE TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 100S ACROSS THE RGV AND COASTAL COUNTIES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BY 22-GARCIA.
PREVIOUS FORECAST: VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS REDUCE TO LIGHT AND PRIMARILY EASTERLY WITH
SOME VARIABILITY THROUGH MONDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF MOVES INLAND, AND MODERATE SEAS REDUCING
TO SLIGHT AS WINDS LESSEN. LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 30%) OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS PERSISTS EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY, BEFORE INCREASING TO MODERATE (30-60%) TUESDAY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TUESDAY, MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS RETURN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 90 73 92 75 / 20 0 10 0
HARLINGEN 91 70 93 71 / 20 0 10 0
MCALLEN 95 72 96 74 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 95 69 96 71 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 78 86 79 / 20 10 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 72 89 74 / 20 10 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK
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