369
FXUS64 KBRO 061812 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
112 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 109 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
* AT LEAST A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-40%) CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS
TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS WELL AS A
MEDIUM TO LIKELY (50-70%) CHANCE ALONG AND EAST OF US-281/I-69 C
THROUGH THURSDAY.
* HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST ACROSS
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ALONG AND EAST OF I-69 E.
* A MEDIUM RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AND WILL
BE LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
* A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
DRY CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY AS RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT CONTINUES
ALONG WITH DRIER THAN AVERAGE PWAT VALUES, WHICH IS AROUND 1.50-1.55
INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, A HIGH PRESSURE
ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY-EASTERLY, ADVECTING MORE GULF MOISTURE INLAND,
RESULTING IN ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT VALUES TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY,
POTENTIALLY SURPASSING 2.0 INCHES ACROSS THE RGV, HIGHEST ALONG
THE COAST. AS THIS MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY,
THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-40%) CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS
ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG
THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALONG AND EAST OF US-281/I-69 C, DAILY POP'S INCREASE FROM
A MEDIUM (50-60%) CHANCE TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY (70%)
CHANCE ON THURSDAY. DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE CWA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US IS LIKELY TO REDUCE CHANCES OF
RAIN FROM A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE ON FRIDAY TO A LOW (15%
OR LESS) CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT RETURN. IN THE MEANTIME, ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHERE THE HIGHEST PWAT LEVELS RESIDE.
NEAR AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES (LOWER TO MID 90'S) INLAND AND MID-
80'S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST CONTINUE. ABOVE AVERAGE OVERNIGHT
LOWS PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70'S
BEFORE COOLING TO THE 60'S AND LOWER 70'S BY FRIDAY NIGHT, WHILE
TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR 80 DEGF AT THE COAST. A MOSTLY MINOR
(LEVEL 1/4) HEAT RISK CONTINUES, THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE RGV CAN
EXPECT A MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) HEAT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY.
A MEDIUM RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE
LATER PARTS OF THIS WEEK AS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WHILE LONG PERIOD SWELLS
SUSTAIN. THE COMBINED EFFECTS FROM THE FULL MOON THIS EVENING,
LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE RESULTED IN THE
EXTENSION OF THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
LEADING INTO AND OUT OF HIGH TIDE CYCLES, SUCH AS 3:33 PM THIS
AFTERNOON, 2:39 AM TONIGHT AND 4:56 PM TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 5-10 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 15-20 KNOTS,
ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE, ALTHOUGH PROB30'S
HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR KBRO AND KHRL BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING
AS MOISTURE ELEVATES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
GENTLE (5-10 KNOTS) EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-3
FT) SEAS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW, BECOMING EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
TOMORROW NIGHT. MODERATE EAST NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS (3-5 FT) DEVELOP WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE RESULT OF A
SLIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEFORE GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO
LIKELY (40-70%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 93 77 92 77 / 0 10 60 50
HARLINGEN 95 73 92 73 / 0 10 50 30
MCALLEN 100 77 96 77 / 10 10 50 40
RIO GRANDE CITY 99 73 96 73 / 0 10 30 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 81 87 80 / 0 10 50 50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 76 90 76 / 0 10 50 40
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...65
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