413
FXUS64 KBRO 072338
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
638 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INFLUX OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE, AIDED BY PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW, WILL
MAINTAIN ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS WILL
RESULT IN A NOTABLE AIRMASS GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS, WITH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE CONTENT. AS A RESULT, THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES EACH DAY WILL RESIDE ACROSS MOST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND IMMEDIATE COAST, WHICH COINCIDES WITH
THE AXIS OF HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
THIS MORNING’S 12Z SOUNDING OBSERVED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
OF 1.85 INCHES, WHICH IS JUST ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.8 INCHES TO UPWARDS OF
2.0 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN COMBINATION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SOME ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL GIVEN
THE UNSETTLED AIRMASS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
IMMEDIATE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND WHILE THIS WILL BE BENEFICIAL GIVEN
RECENT DRY TRENDS, MAY RESULT IN NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS
FLOOD-PRONE AREAS AND PONDING ON ROADWAYS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
COME TO AN END BY THE WEEKEND AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY OCTOBER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY TEMPER THE HEAT FOR A FEW HOURS EACH AFTERNOON.
A MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4) TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK WILL
CONTINUE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY....VFR TO MVFR CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS EVENING THROUGH THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME IN WAVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HAVE VCSH AND PROB30 GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BRIEFLY
REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS.
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-15 KTS THIS EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT. EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN
5-15 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS OR SO, PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OVER A TAF SITE WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITIES OF BRIEFLY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35KTS OR SO.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 3-5 FEET BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM
(20-60%) RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH LOW (20% OR LESS)
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS
ARE LIKELY WITHIN ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 77 90 77 89 / 60 50 50 70
HARLINGEN 74 90 73 90 / 40 50 30 70
MCALLEN 76 93 76 93 / 40 50 30 60
RIO GRANDE CITY 73 94 71 93 / 30 40 20 40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 87 81 86 / 60 60 50 70
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 88 76 88 / 50 50 40 70
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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