701
FXUS64 KBRO 091729
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1229 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1219 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
- TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING ASHORE WILL BRING A 20-30% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS (MOSTLY E OF US 281/I-69C) TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETS IN AND DRIER WEATHER TAKES
HOLD FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
- SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK,
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW TEMPERATURES STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH IS MOVING INLAND FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE INTO MEXICO, BRINGING A WAVE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. FROM THERE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER
OUR AREA INTO THE NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL DRY OUT CONDITIONS AND
REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR ALL OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS STARTING FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. THE EXCEPTION IS ON TUESDAY WHEN A SHORT-LIVED, WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH OFF THE MEXICAN WILL BRING A BRIEF WAVE OF MOISTURE THAT
COULD RESULT IN A SMALL (20% OR LESS) CHANCE OF ISOLATED SEA BREEZE
SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND SEASONAL, WITH HIGHS
GETTING UP INTO THE LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET
INTO THE LOW 70S WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE, BUT AS DRIER AIR
AND CLEARER SKIES START TO SETTLE IN ON FRIDAY EVENING, LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR A MAJORITY OF THE CWA, EXCEPTING COASTAL
AREAS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOWS IN THE 70S. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE OVERALL NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, VEERING TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST TOMORROW, AND MAY LAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE AREA
RECEIVES ONSHORE FLOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS COULD
BECOME GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ONGOING SHOWERS COULD
IMPACT ANY OF THE AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WHICH COULD
TEMPORARILY DETERIORATE CONDITIONS, SO A TEMPO WAS ADDED TO EACH
TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
ELEVATED WINDS DUE TO A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE COMING ASHORE TO THE
SOUTH INTO MEXICO ALONG WITH AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS IN THE
BAY AND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN, WHICH WILL IMPROVE MARINE CONDITIONS TO
MORE FAVORABLE LEVELS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 90 77 89 73 / 70 40 30 10
HARLINGEN 90 73 91 68 / 60 20 20 0
MCALLEN 93 75 93 70 / 60 20 30 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 93 72 93 66 / 60 20 30 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 81 86 78 / 60 40 20 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 76 88 73 / 60 30 20 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
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