555
FXUS64 KBRO 100314
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1014 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
* ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS RAIN
CHANCES/TRENDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE.
* FOLLOWING A WEAK COOL FROPA, DRIER AIR AND WEATHER CONDITIONS
RETURN FRIDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
* TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
* A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT TILL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK COOL FRONT OVER THE GULF WATERS
ADJACENT TO THE BORDER OF KENEDY COUNTY. MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS WERE ALSO TAKING PLACE OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH MUCH OF
THE ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR SOUTH OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING, EXPECT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO BE AROUND WITH
TRENDS DECREASING IN TIME AS THE COOL FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS.
DRIER AIR AND WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOLLOWING THE COOL FROPA AS MID-UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. DRIER
AIR AND WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BREEZY ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS
BETWEEN 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH, THANKS TO A CONTINUED
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A BROAD AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.
WITH THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE AT BROWNSVILLE/SOUTH PADRE ISLAND
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KBRO), ANOMALIES THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FINALLY, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AND A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
ARE IN EFFECT TILL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING BASED ON OBSERVATIONS
SEEN FROM WEBCAMS ALONG THE SOUTH PADRE ISLAND BEACHES EARLIER AND
OBSERVATIONS/FORECASTS FROM THE SPI BRAZOS SANTIAGO STATION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY....VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO AROUND
FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE VCSH SHOWERS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW SHOWERS AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME
AS OVERALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS DOWNWARD IN COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY
OVER TIME.
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE TO 5-10
KTS TONIGHT. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH
SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A BROAD AND STRONG SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
ELEVATED EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN
3-6 FEET (SCEC CONDITIONS) THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS WINDS RELAX RESULTING IN
WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2-4 FEET. FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2-4 FEET ON
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 77 89 71 89 / 40 30 0 0
HARLINGEN 73 91 66 91 / 20 20 0 0
MCALLEN 76 94 69 94 / 20 30 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 72 93 65 93 / 20 30 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 86 79 85 / 40 20 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 88 71 87 / 30 20 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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