124
FXUS64 KBRO 281125 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
625 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 616 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
- NEAR OR RECORD-BREAKING HEAT CONTINUES TUESDAY.
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AREA WIDE ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO VERY LOW
HUMIDITY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TUESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S. A STRONG COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALLOWING LOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE FRONT, THOUGH HOW FAR WEST THIS LINE WILL EXTEND IS UNCERTAIN.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST (60-70%) OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE, RAPIDLY DECREASING FURTHER INLAND.
BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHARPLY
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY. COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIR THIS WILL INCREASE THE FIRE
WEATHER RISK WEDNESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR
WEDNESDAY, AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING.
STRONG WINDS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL LIKELY INCREASE
SURF HEIGHTS AND STRENGTHEN RIP CURRENTS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RIP CURRENT
STATEMENTS AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREES THURSDAY AS WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER AND MORE HUMID
RETURN FLOW TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY AND MAY REACH THE LOW
90S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AT ALL TAF
SITES. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE REGION TONIGHT, WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A STRONG SHIFT IN WINDS TOWARDS THE NORTH. IN
ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS. A PROB 30 HAS BEEN USED TO ESTIMATE THE TIMING FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR
WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT, WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. A GALE WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR THE GULF WATERS AND LAGUNA
MADRE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THURSDAY, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTING TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR
IN IT’S WAKE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
10-15% WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH 20 FT WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 MPH. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY, AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY THURSDAY, AS WIND
SPEEDS DECREASE AND WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 93 64 78 53 / 0 60 0 0
HARLINGEN 97 60 79 45 / 0 50 0 0
MCALLEN 99 64 81 50 / 0 30 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 99 61 79 47 / 0 10 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 69 76 64 / 0 70 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 63 78 54 / 0 60 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM....60
AVIATION...64-KATZ
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