710
FXUS64 KBRO 282342 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
642 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 630 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
- THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL RESULT LOW TO
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT, AND NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW THROUGH LATE WEEK.
- A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT LATE THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING OVER THE GULF WATERS AND LAGUNA MADRE. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE THIS
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF VERY LOW HUMIDITY, DRY FUELS, AND BREEZY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
ON WEDNESDAY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS THE PASSAGE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE WE’RE
LOOKING FORWARD TO THE NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AFTER A HOT FEW
WEEKS, THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED BEACH/MARINE
HAZARDS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AND BREEZY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD ONCE AGAIN (91 DEGREES IN 2023 AT
BROWNSVILLE, 96 DEGREES IN 2015 AT MCALLEN, AND 96 DEGREES IN
1931 IN HARLINGEN), AND MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY, BASED ON THE
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. GIVEN THESE TRENDS, WE SHOULD SEE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS EVENING, EXITING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT, BUT CHANCES
SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW MORNING SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
MORNING, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THE ARRIVAL OF A NOTABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. ADDITIONALLY,
DEW POINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S WILL YIELD LOW HUMIDITY VALUES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN COMBINATION WITH BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS AND ANTECEDENT RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS, THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY REGION WIDE.
ADDITIONALLY, BREEZY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS BEACHES.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WE’LL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON, ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGH TIDE AND NEAR HIGHWAY 4. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, AND WE SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE WINDS SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE COMBINATION OF CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES, WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS IN THE LOW/MID RGV AROUND
50 DEGREES. IT'S NOT OUT OF THE POSSIBILITY THAT AREAS ACROSS THE
LOW/MID RGV FALL BELOW 50 DEGREES GIVEN THE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET UP. EITHER WAY, THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT SINCE
EARLY APRIL! A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS AND IS FORECAST
TO REACH LOCAL AIRFIELDS IN THE NEXT 4-5 HOURS (SHORTLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT). CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE
COASTLINE AND OVER THE GULF, HOWEVER CONVECTIVE MODELS DO SHOW
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT BRO AND HRL FOR A COUPLE HOURS TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR IMPACTS AT MFE, WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE PLACING IT AROUND THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
COULD DEVELOP WITH PASSING THUNDERSTORMS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 30KT FOR MULTIPLE HOURS. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND LAGUNA MADRE DUE TO
GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
BY THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS GUSTY WINDS LINGER. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL USHER IN A NOTABLY DRIER AIRMASS AND STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10-15% BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST 20 FOOT WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
FALL IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. AS A RESULT, A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND WIND SPEEDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 64 77 51 76 / 60 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 59 78 44 78 / 40 0 0 0
MCALLEN 64 80 49 80 / 30 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 61 78 45 79 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 76 61 73 / 70 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 62 77 53 75 / 60 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ248>255-
351-353>355-451-454-455.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ451-
454-455.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...60-BE
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