139
FXUS64 KBRO 290407
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1107 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1104 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
- THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL RESULT LOW TO
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT, AND NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW THROUGH LATE WEEK.
- A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT LATE THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING OVER THE GULF WATERS AND LAGUNA MADRE. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE THIS
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF VERY LOW HUMIDITY, DRY FUELS, AND BREEZY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
ON WEDNESDAY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS,
BRINGING STRONGER WINDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND MULTIPLE
HAZARDS. THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT, WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE GULF
WATERS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW FURTHER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND, AND RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A
RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS
THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH INTO MEXICO.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS, ALLOWING LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S TONIGHT. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S, AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BUILD HIGHER SURF AND INCREASE RIP
CURRENT STRENGTH ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AT
AREA BEACHES. ADDITIONALLY, A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR THE
BARRIER ISLANDS AND INTIMIDATE COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. COASTAL FLOODING MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN TONIGHT,
THE SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR WILL DROP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN PLACE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY, AS STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH THIS DRY AIR WILL
INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD IF ANY WILDFIRES OCCUR.
LOWER WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN SPITE OF THE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.
WINDS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY,
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
SATURDAY WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS AND IS FORECAST
TO REACH LOCAL AIRFIELDS IN THE NEXT 4-5 HOURS (SHORTLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT). CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE
COASTLINE AND OVER THE GULF, HOWEVER CONVECTIVE MODELS DO SHOW
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT BRO AND HRL FOR A COUPLE HOURS TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR IMPACTS AT MFE, WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE PLACING IT AROUND THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
COULD DEVELOP WITH PASSING THUNDERSTORMS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 30KT FOR MULTIPLE HOURS. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A GALE WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF WATERS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, BRINGING
STRONGER WINDS IN IT’S WAKE. WIND SPEEDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL
BUILD HIGHER SEAS, WITH SEAS UP TO 15 FEET POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF
WATERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THURSDAY, AS WINDS
WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING SEAS TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE. LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
THIS WEEKEND, WITH GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT MUCH DRIER AIR AND STRONGER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO THE LOW TEENS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
WHILE 20 FOOT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 15-20 KNOTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS. THIS COMBINATION IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DRY FUELS,
AND COULD SUPPORT RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD AND ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR
WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY,
HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LOWER THURSDAY, AND
LIKELY WON’T SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 64 77 51 76 / 60 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 59 78 44 78 / 40 0 0 0
MCALLEN 64 80 49 80 / 30 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 61 78 45 79 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 76 61 73 / 70 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 62 77 53 75 / 60 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ248>255-
351-353>355-451-454-455.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ351-354-355-451-
454-455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ451-
454-455.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-
170-175.
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...60
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