093
FXUS64 KBRO 291740
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1240 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1240 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
- TONIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT SINCE LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL.
OTHERWISE, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
- A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE
GULF WATERS AND LAGUNA MADRE.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF VERY LOW HUMIDITY, DRY FUELS, AND BREEZY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
- A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS BEACHES. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT HAS BROUGHT THE FIRST
TASTE OF FALL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, VERY MUCH WELCOMED AFTER
SEVERAL WEEKS OF ABOVE NORMAL HEAT! TEMPERATURES ARE NOTABLY
COOLER TODAY, WITH MUCH OF THE REGION AROUND 15-20 DEGREES COOLER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION VIA BREEZY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TRANSLATES
TOWARDS THE EASTERN US. BEACH, MARINE, AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
GULF WATERS. STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL
FLOODING TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE ANY COASTAL
FLOOD PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
BY THIS EVENING AND FALL BELOW 10 MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS.
THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES TONIGHT, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE (60-90%) OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND LOWER TEXAS BEACHES, WITH A LOW
CHANCE (30% OR LESS) OF TEMPERATURES BELOW 50 DEGREES AS WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED. STILL, THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT SINCE LATE
MARCH/EARLY APRIL!
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON THURSDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER DAY
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES. THIS IS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR LATE OCTOBER. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST,
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.
A WARMING TREND BEGINS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 80S. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE CONTENT IS
EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND, AND A COLD FRONT MAY REACH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. IN COMBINATION WITH MEAGER MOISTURE CONTENT IN
PLACE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN GENERALLY LOW
(20-40%) SATURDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE FALLING BELOW 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF
WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING IN WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS UP TO 35 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO NEAR 40
KNOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS WIND SPEEDS
DECREASE TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AND SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THURSDAY AND
REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY DRY AIR, BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, AND
DRY FUELS COULD SUPPORT RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD AND ERRATIC FIRE
BEHAVIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL RANGE FROM 10-15% ALONG AND WEST OF I-69E AND AROUND 20-30%
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WINDS WILL BE NOTABLY
LIGHTER AND SHOULD PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 50 76 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 45 77 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 49 79 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 45 79 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 57 73 66 78 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 51 74 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ248>255-351-
353>355-451-454-455.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ351-354-355-
451-454-455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-
170-175.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...22-GARCIA
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