376
FXUS64 KBRO 301109 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
609 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 607 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
- NEAR TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
CRITICALLY DRY FINE FUELS, HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR SINGLE DIGITS,
AND OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 10-15 MPH.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING OVER THE GULF WATERS.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
HAVE ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY TO COVER NEAR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, INCLUDING
CRITICALLY DRY FINE FUELS, NEAR SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY VALUES, AND
ERC PERCENTILES ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. HAVE HELD OFF FROM
ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO A LACK OF SUSTAINED WINDS, BUT
AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15 MPH TODAY IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. BURN
BANS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, BROOKS, STARR,
HIDALGO, WILLACY, AND CAMERON COUNTIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
40S ACROSS MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES, EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 70S AT THE
BEACHES. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 50S
IN THE POPULATED PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FARTHER EASTWARD BY FRIDAY ALLOWING A
WARMING TREND TO START AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK, WINDS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND MAY PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
7 AM THURSDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ON
THURSDAY AND REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME RECOVERING BY
MORNING, CURRENTLY 27-43 PERCENT, WEST TO EAST. ERC VALUES STILL
TOP THE 90TH PERCENTILE INTO FRIDAY, WITH POOR MOISTURE RECOVERY
EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MONITOR FOR ANY UPGRADE TO RED
FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON OR AN ADDITIONAL FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 76 55 82 64 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 78 47 83 58 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 80 52 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 79 47 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 66 77 71 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 75 55 79 63 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ150-155-
170-175.
SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....63-KC
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
UPDATE/FIRE...56-HALLMAN
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