489
FXUS64 KBRO 312318 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
618 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 614 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WHICH
WILL BRING A 20-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK THAT SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING NEXT
FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S. AN POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO EJECT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, PUSHING HIGHER
PRESSURE EASTWARD AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SMALL TO
MEDIUM (20- 40%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF
5) RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, PARTICULARLY
EAST OF US 281/I-69C.
THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW-
TO-MID 80S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, UNTIL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO WARM ON WEDNESDAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S BY
FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHILLY THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, GETTING DOWN INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 50S AND WARMING THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK TO THE LOWER 60S. SOME AREAS IN THE UPPER RANCHLANDS
COULD SEE LOWS GET DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHER
THAN SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION WITH SATURDAY NIGHT'S FRONTAL PASSAGE, SKIES SHOULD
STAY MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION (OTHER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY). WINDS
SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY VEERING TO A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT, OR SHORTLY AFTER, SUNSET THIS
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW MORNING AROUND
5-10 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 15-20 KNOTS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION, BUT
PROBABILITY IS LESS THAN 15%. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OVERALL FAVORABLE THIS NEXT WEEK WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS, EXCEPT FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WHEN A FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AND/OR POSSIBLY EVEN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE AGAIN BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN MORE FAVORABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 63 88 67 80 / 0 10 50 10
HARLINGEN 57 89 60 80 / 0 10 40 10
MCALLEN 61 91 62 83 / 0 10 30 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 57 91 59 82 / 0 0 20 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 71 83 71 77 / 0 10 60 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 63 86 66 79 / 0 10 60 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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