057
FXUS64 KBRO 020416 CCA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1116 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1052 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
- THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5)
RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF
KENEDY COUNTY WHILE A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF US-281/I-69 C.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
- A MEDIUM RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
AND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED WINDS,
WAVE HEIGHTS AND WAVE PERIODS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS
INCREASING EFFECTS FROM ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.
- RIDGING ALOFT AND DRY CONDITIONS (LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF RAIN)
RETURN SUNDAY AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES, BECOMING ABOVE
AVERAGE BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
THIS HAS BEEN AN ACTIVE EVENING FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALREADY WITH
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS ISSUED ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES (KENEDY, WILLACY AND CAMERON) AND OVER THE GULF
COASTAL WATERS (0-60 NM), WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
CURRENTLY ACTIVE IN CAMERON COUNTY AS WELL AS 2 ONGOING SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS. THESE STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL (GREATER THAN 1") AND/OR RADAR- AND SATELLITE-DETECTED MAXIMUM
ESTIMATED HAIL SIZES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES AS WELL AS WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 55 KNOTS (GREATER THAN 63 MPH) AND BRIEF PERIODS OF
ROTATION LEADING TO POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUDS AND/OR WATERSPOUTS. THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ENERGIZED AS MUCAPE OF AT LEAST
1,000 J/KG REMAINS ALL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ALONG WITH HIGH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES (UP TO 65 KNOTS, HIGHER TO THE WEST OF
US-281/I-69 C, WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER) AS
WELL AS LARGE HAIL PARAMETER VALUES OF 6-8 AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 6.5 OR GREATER ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
RGV. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY INLAND
OVERNIGHT AS CELLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NWS CORPUS
COUNTY WARNING AREA MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS ON EITHER
SIDE OF US-281/I-69 C, LIKELY AS FAR WEST AS JIM HOGG AND STARR
COUNTIES; SPC CONTINUES A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF KENEDY COUNTY
WHILE A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF US- 281/I-69 C. HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS, THOUGH MAYBE NOT AS
LARGE HAIL OR AS STRONG WIND AS ALREADY OBSERVED AND/OR DETECTED
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, WE EXPECT FOR PROBABILITIES OF RAIN TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE, WITH
CHANCES DROPPING BELOW 15% BY SUNDAY MORNING.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT
RETURNS FROM A MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, WHICH IS LIKELY TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS (LESS THAN 10%
POP'S) INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL GULF BY MID-WEEK,
MAINTAINING HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE,
NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY GRADUALLY VEER TO EASTERLY BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES.
ALTHOUGH STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT, IN COMPARISON TO THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH OUR REGION
LAST WEEK, THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE DROP AS HIGHS
ON SUNDAY REACH INTO THE UPPER 70'S AND LOWER 80'S, WHICH IS ONLY A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80'S, AS WELL AS A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ADVECT WARM AIR. BY NEXT WEEKEND, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COULD
BE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, THE
MOST NOTABLE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE MAY BE FELT ON MONDAY MORNING
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40'S IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS AND MAINLY 50'S ELSEWHERE, WHICH IS AT LEAST 5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN AVERAGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WARM TO NEAR AVERAGE BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH 50'S AND 60'S, BEFORE WARMING TO
MAINLY 60'S BY NEXT WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THE
DAYTIME TODAY, LIKELY CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT, A MEDIUM, POSSIBLY EVEN HIGH, RISK IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS WINDS, WAVE HEIGHTS AND WAVE PERIODS INCREASE IN
COMBINATION WITH INCREASING EFFECTS OF ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ON MONDAY.
A MEDIUM RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME SUNDAY
AND LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS WAVE HEIGHTS AND WAVE PERIODS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WHILE UNDER THE BUILDING INFLUENCE OF
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE REGION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
AM ANTICIPATING FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT AT KBRO AND
KHRL ALONG WITH A SLIGHT PROBABILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS WHILE KMFE
REMAINS DRY WITH MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) GUSTS. LATE TONIGHT, THE
FRONT AND LINE OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEASTWARD, BRINGING VICINITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL
TERMINALS, GENERALLY BETWEEN 05-10Z, THOUGH TIME MAY VARY BY A FEW
HOURS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IN STORMS,
PROB30'S ARE INCLUDED FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AS MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH LARGE HAIL (GREATER
THAN 1 INCH) AND DAMAGING WIND (POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS)
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS WITHIN THE STRONGEST OF STORMS. THE
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AT KHRL AND KBRO DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
AS THE STORMS PASS BY AROUND 10Z, WE EXPECT MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS)
NORTHERLY WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS, INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 25
KNOTS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AS
CLOUDS CLEAR EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PASSED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS (0-60 NM) ALREADY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS ANOTHER ROUND
MOVES OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH, HOWEVER WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE NEARLY AS
STRONG CELLS, THOUGH SMALL HAIL AND STRONGER WINDS MAY STILL BE
POSSIBLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF THE
COASTAL WATERS UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING AS NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO STRONG INTO SUNRISE IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS IMPROVE BACK BACK TO FAVORABLE
WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 66 79 60 81 / 70 10 0 0
HARLINGEN 59 80 52 82 / 70 10 0 0
MCALLEN 61 83 57 85 / 40 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 58 82 51 85 / 20 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 70 77 70 78 / 80 10 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 65 78 61 80 / 80 10 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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