455
FXUS64 KBRO 231131 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
531 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 528 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
- ABOVE AVERAGE AND RECORD-BREAKING, OR NEAR RECORD-BREAKING,
HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO LIKELY (40-60%) CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH A
LOW (15-20%) CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF I-69 E CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA) IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%)
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THIS MORNING. AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND
DIMINISH PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION (POP'S) FROM SOUTH TO NORTH,
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS (<10% POP'S) ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS BY THIS EVENING, CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY, EXTENDING ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD, POSSIBLY ARRIVING TO AND STALLING NEAR
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. LIFT PROVIDED BY
THIS BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH OVER
WESTERN TEXAS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE CHANCES
OF RAIN TO A LOW (15-20%) CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS LIKELY TO INITIATE A COLD FRONT, WITH
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF IT INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY TO A MEDIUM TO LIKELY (40-60%) CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY
WINDS. FOLLOWING, POP'S DIMINISH THROUGHOUT MOST OF INLAND DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH COASTAL TROUGHING COULD
MAINTAIN A LOW (15-20%) CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF I-69 E INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURNING ON FRIDAY.
SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW AND/OR WARM AIR ADVECTION VIA
SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 10-15 DEGREES F ABOVE AVERAGE
DURING THIS TIME WITH RECORD-BREAKING, OR NEAR RECORD-BREAKING,
HIGHS IN THE 80'S TO LOWER 90'S FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60'S AND 70'S. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY, AND BEYOND, WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
RETURN ON FRIDAY.
A MEDIUM RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
SHALLOW FIELD FOG MAY DIMINISH VISIBILITY AT TIMES THROUGH JUST
AFTER SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED, WITH BRIEF
MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN BREEZY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH VFR
CEILINGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
MOSTLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-3
FEET) SEAS DURING THE DAY TODAY BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH, POSSIBLY
NEAR STRONG, SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS, RESULTING IN MODERATE SEAS OF
4-6 FEET AS WELL LIKELY SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC)
HEADLINES. A SHORTER-FUSED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BRIEFLY THROUGHOUT MONDAY NIGHT, LEADING
TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE (3-4 FEET)
SEAS. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, LIKELY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCEC HEADLINES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY MAINLY MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CHANCES OF RAIN DECREASE FROM A
LOW TO MEDIUM (20- 50%) CHANCE TODAY TO LESS THAN 10% CHANCE INTO
MONDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN GRADUALLY BUILD MONDAY NIGHT TO AS MUCH AS
A MEDIUM TO LIKELY (40-60%) CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO A LOW TO MEDIUM (15-40%) BY THURSDAY AND BEYOND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 87 74 87 72 / 10 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 88 69 90 67 / 20 0 0 0
MCALLEN 90 73 92 70 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 91 69 92 66 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 76 83 75 / 20 0 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 71 86 69 / 20 0 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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