817
FXUS64 KBRO 242345 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
545 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 526 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
- ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TUESDAY.
- A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING A MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT JUST
IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING, BUT WON'T STICK AROUND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER WEST TEXAS IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA TONIGHT. THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY,
WITH FEW OTHER IMPACTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST PUSH THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 40-60% ALONG THE FRONT, WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF
HIRES MODELS DEPICTING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. CAPE VALUES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 2500 J/KG, HOWEVER LIMITED WIND
SHEAR AND MODERATE LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF
THESE STORMS, LIKELY KEEPING THEM SUB-SEVERE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONGER WINDS AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND THE LOWER RGV COULD REMAIN IN
THE LOW 60S.
THE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR
THANKSGIVING, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR-ZERO CHANCES ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN FRIDAY LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE MID-80S BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN OVERNIGHT, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNRISE. RADIATIONAL COOLING, ABUNDANT
MOISTURE, AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. FOG IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING AT ALL SITES. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY REDUCE
VSBY/CIGS TO MVFR WITH LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR. BY 15/16Z, SURFACE
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE, MIXING FOG OUT. VFR TO
PREVAIL LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
GULF WATERS UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ENDS, THROUGH TONIGHT. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO BRIEFLY RETURN TUESDAY, BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 60% TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND
THE FRONT, STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS WILL LIKELY
REQUIRE ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BRIEFLY
SUBSIDE FOR THANKSGIVING, HOWEVER STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVERSE CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 71 88 70 79 / 0 10 50 50
HARLINGEN 68 89 65 78 / 0 10 50 40
MCALLEN 71 91 68 78 / 0 10 60 40
RIO GRANDE CITY 66 90 64 76 / 0 20 60 40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 83 73 78 / 10 10 50 50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 87 68 78 / 0 10 50 40
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...69-HK
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