000
FXUS64 KBRO 250505
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1105 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1103 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
- ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TUESDAY.
- A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT JUST
IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING, BUT WON'T STICK AROUND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S; WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
NOVEMBER. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE NEARED, TIED, OR
BROKEN.
A COLD FRONT ACCELERATING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TUESDAY, EXPECTED TO PASS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, RAIN CHANCES OF 10-20% ARE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE FRONTS SPEED AND IF CONVECTION IS ABLE TO FORM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALONG THE FRONT, PREPARE FOR LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES OF RAIN (30 TO 60%) OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE CWA, WITH A LINGERING LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS (20 TO
40%) THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIRES GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A LINE OF
SHOWERS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT, BUT HOW CONNECTED THIS LINE WILL
BE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS (AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS
LINE), IS UNCERTAIN. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALLOWING MOISTURE TO BUILD
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IS ALLOWING FOR A HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG
THE RIVER. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY, HOWEVER, LIMITED SHEAR COULD DAMPER
STRENGTH - STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SEVERE.
GUSTY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER
AIR WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
IN THE LOW 50S. THESE WILL NOT LAST LONG, AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
RISE FRIDAY ONWARD WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TONIGHT, WHICH COULD PASS OVER A SITE AND TEMPORARILY REDUCE
CEILINGS TO 020-025KFT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AS WINDS LESSEN. THIS CAN REDUCE CIGS/VSBY TO MVFR WITH
LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION IS MAINTAINING ELEVATED WINDS - IF THIS HOLDS ITS STRENGTH,
WIND MAY CURB FOG DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOLLOWING
SUNRISE TUESDAY, SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS (40-50%) AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE RGV.
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
(10% CHANCE).
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER LOWER TEXAS
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADVERSE CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY WITH A FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZE AND MODERATE SEAS. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TO LOW TO MEDIUM (30 TO 50%) TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS. LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, ELEVATED SEAS, AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS. WINDS AND
SEAS MAY BRIEFLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY, BUT ADVERSE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 87 71 88 70 / 0 0 10 50
HARLINGEN 90 68 89 65 / 0 0 10 50
MCALLEN 93 71 91 68 / 0 0 10 60
RIO GRANDE CITY 92 66 90 64 / 0 0 20 60
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 75 83 73 / 0 10 10 50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 69 87 68 / 0 0 10 50
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK
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