855
FXUS64 KBRO 251842
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1242 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1229 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
-DANGEROUS SURF AND SOME TIDAL RUN-UP AT THE BEACH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, IMPACTING PEOPLE HERE FOR THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND
-DIFFICULT BOATING CONDITIONS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY FOR LAGUNA MADRE AND
THE GULF, CONTINUING OVER THE GULF INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
-SOME WELCOME RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ALONG A FRONT THAT
BRINGS A SHORT BREAK THROUGH FRIDAY FROM THE RECORD/NEAR RECORD HEAT
OF THE PAST WEEK
-STRONGER FRONT COULD ARRIVE EARLY SUNDAY WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS SURF/BOATING CONDITIONS RETURNING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE WELL-ADVERTISED FRONT THAT WILL BRING
A CHANGE FROM EARLY OCTOBER HEAT TO MORE 'NORMAL' CONDITIONS HEADED
INTO THANKSGIVING IS THE MAIN STORY EARLY IN THE FORECAST. ALONG
AND ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE MAIN BOUNDARY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ARE NOW EXPECTED, FAVORING THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS/BRUSH COUNTRY/UPPER VALLEY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND JUST AFTER
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, AND THE POPULATED LOWER-MID VALLEY FROM PRE-DAWN
THROUGH NOON OR SO WEDNESDAY. QPF FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TRICKY, AS
SURFACE STABIILTY BEHIND THE FRONT IS COUNTERED A BIT BY DECENT
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. HIGH-RES (HREF) MODEL PROBABILITIES FOR >0.5" ARE
AROUND 40% ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS/UPPER VALLEY OVERNIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY, WITH SIMILAR VALUES ALONG THE COAST LATER ON WEDNESDAY.
BOTTOM LINE? AT MOST, VERY LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING WHERE HIGH
RAINFALL RATES FALL OVER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. OTHERWISE, BENEFICIAL
RAIN FOR MOST, AND GIVEN THE CURRENT MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS, ANY LITTLE BIT HELPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON BOTH COVERAGE AND DURATION OF RAIN. PERSISTENT RAIN
OR RAIN WITH SHORT BREAKS WOULD ONLY ALLOW LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS,
BUT MORE BREAKS WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. THE
CURRENT BLENDED FORECAST LEANS A BIT WARMER FOR THE POPULATED RGV
(NEAR 80) WHILE 70-75 IS COMMON ELSEWHERE. THE PROBABILITY FOR A
LARGER ERROR SPREAD IS GREATEST IN THE POPULATED RGV IF DAYTIME RAIN
IS FREQUENT VS. OCCASIONAL. EITHER WAY, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 10 TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY THAN ON TUEDSAY.
OTHERWISE, THE OTHER ISSUE ARRIVES FOR THOSE AT OR PLANNING TO HEAD
TO SOUTH PADRE TO ENJOY THE STILL VERY WARM (~80 DEGREE) SURF. FOR
THOSE THERE TODAY, TAKE ADVANTAGE AS STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARRIVE BY OR BEFORE NOON, AND DANGEROUS SURF
WITH INTENSE RIP CURRENTS FOLLOW SOON AFTER. BY LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, TIDES MAY RUN UP THE BEACH GIVEN THE DIRECT
SWELL DIRECTION ONSHORE. FORTUNATELY, PREDICTED TIDES ARE IN THEIR
LOW PHASE SO NOTABLE COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
ENOUGH OF AN ENERGY SURGE COULD BRING WATER TO THE DUNE LINE AT
NARROW BEACHES FROM THE NORTH END OF THE CITY OF SPI THROUGH THE
PUBLIC BEACH ACCESS POINTS. IN SHORT, VEHICLES SHOULD PLAN TO BE
OFF THE BEACH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TO ENSURE NOT GETTING SURPRISED
(AND STUCK) IN ANY WATER LATER IN THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: ANY LINGERING LIGHT EVENING
RAIN NEAR THE COAST SHOULD END, WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH. THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL, WHICH IS RELATIVE
SINCE FORECAST TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING DAY ARE WHERE
THEY SHOULD BE (50 RANCHLANDS, 55-60 VALLEY EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST).
THAT SAID, TEMPERATURES MAY END UP A BIT HIGHER THAN THIS DEPENDING
ON THICKNESS OF REMAINING CLOUDS WHICH WOULD BE AN INSULATING
BLANKET DESPITE THE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. ASIDE FROM THE CLOUDS
(ESPECIALLY FOR THE VALLEY), THANKSGIVING LOOKS IDEAL FOR OUTDOOR
EATING WITH TEMPERATURES AT SEASONAL LEVELS (MID TO UPPER 70S),
MODEST HUMIDITY, AND LIGHT EAST WINDS AS AREA IS UNDER SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE EASES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
LOW TO MID LEVEL SOUTHEAST/SOUTH FLOW QUICKLY RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY, AIDED BY WEAK SHEAR ENERGY IN BROAD WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. LATEST GFS HINTING AT A WARM-FRONTAL TYPE SETUP WHICH
COULD BRING LOW CHANCES (10-20%) OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS, FAVORING THE
RANCHLANDS. THE CLOUDS WILL PUT SOMEWHAT OF A LID ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES..BUT EVEN SO, EXPECT READINGS BACK TO A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE AVERAGE (AVERAGE FOR THE 28TH IS MID 70S RANCHLANDS, UPPER 70S
VALLEY). SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PICKS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY,
BRINGING A RETURN TO OCTOBER-LIKE CONDITIONS (TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WITH A SOUPY START AND A WARM, PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON).
FOR THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR BOTH MINIMUM VALUES (63 TO 70) AND MAXIMUM VALUES (83 TO 88).
ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT FOLLOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEE
HOURS SUNDAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT BIGGER FRONT
PERHAPS PRODUCING A PERIOD OF FOG.
RESIDUAL RIP CURRENTS ON SOUTH PADRE FOR THANKSGIVING WILL BE A
CONCERN, BEFORE A ONE-DAY LULL FRIDAY. THE STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING A PRONOUNCED
SOUTH-NORTH LONGSHORE AND ROUGHENING/BULIDING SURF AS WELL.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR A
FASTER...AND STRONGER...COLD FRONT AS SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SURGES SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS. SHALLOW COLD AIR OFTEN ARRIVES
IN ADVANCE OF WHEN THE GLOBAL MODELS THINK IT MIGHT, SO EXACT TIMING
OF THE SURGE REMAINS IN QUESTION. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED BASED ON
THE RECENT GFS TREND WHICH NOW MATCHES MORE CLOSELY WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF. NBM IS LIKELY LAGGING, SO WILL GET AHEAD OF
THE SITUATION AND LOWER TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS. THAT SAID, THERE IS AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD
THAT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SUNDAY COULD BE UP TO 25 DEGREES COOLER
THAN ON SATURDAY - WITH 10-25% PROBABILITIES (REASONABLE COLD CASE)
THAT READINGS COULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS,
EXCEPT AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST. WE'LL PROVIDE MORE DETAILS AND
PERHAPS A "SHARP CHANGE" GRAPHIC ON THIS TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY).
SHOULD THIS OCCUR, COASTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DETERIORATE WITH
ROUGHENING/DANGEROUS SURF AND PERHAPS SOME MINOR RUN-UP BY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL MAINTAIN THE RELATIVE CHILL, ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHERLY OVERRUNNING. WILL
LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT ON THESE DAYS AS WELL (COMPARED WITH THE
BLENDS) TO GET ON TOP OF THE SITUATION. BOTTOM LINE? POTENTIAL IS
GROWING FOR THE FIRST MULTI-DAY WINDOW OF MUCH BELOW AVERAGE
(DAYTIME) TEMPERATURES THAT WILL MAKE THE START OF DECEMBER FEEL
LIKE...DECEMBER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
VFR IS THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT, AND WILL NEED TO KEEP
EYE ON POSSIBLE MIST (BR) ESPECIALLY AT HARLINGEN LATER THIS
EVENING. SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT, SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE LIKELY, INITIALLY AT MCALLEN BUT SPREADING EAST TOWARD
BROWNSVILLE AND HARLINGEN SOON AFTER (BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z).
CEILING SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR AS SHALLOW COOL AIR IS NOT AN
INITIAL FACTOR, BUT VISIBILITY COULD TEMPO INTO HIGH IFR WITH ANY
STRONGER/HEAVIER CELLS. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE 020-040
DIRECTION, AND WILL ADD A FEW 20+ KNOT VALUES AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD FOR HARLINGEN AND BROWNSVILLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY SLIGHT
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE SURGE OF NORTHEAST
FLOW ARRIVES POST-FRONT/RAPIDLY BUILDING PRESSURE GRADIENT SOON
AFTER. TIMING MAKES THE ISSUANCE OF THE INITIAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
DIFFICULT, AS THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY ARRIVE JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD AND ELSEWHERE AT OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WINDS INTO THE 20-
25 KNOT RANGE, AND SEAS SHOULD EASILY REACH 7, IF NOT 8 FEET, FOR A
TIME BETWEEN 9 AM AND 6 PM WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD A "SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED" HEADLINE TO GET AHEAD OF THE SITUATION.
LAGUNA MADRE WINDS SHOULD DROP BACK BELOW 15 KNOTS SOON AFTER SUNSET
WEDNESDAY, BUT REMAIN 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTY ACROSS THE GULF WELL
INTO THE EVENING AS SEAS MAY HOLD AT OR ABOVE 7 FEET AS WELL. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER AT NIGHT TO MODERATE LEVELS BY
DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN DETERIORATING FRIDAY, AS EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW PICKS UP IN SYNOPTIC GRADIENT THAT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE WEAK MARINE LAYER TO EDGE SPEEDS TOWARD ADVISORY LEVELS
BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL RISE BACK TOWARD 7 FEET BUT PROBABLY
HOLD UP JUST SHORT. THAT WILL NOT BE THE CASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING (AT LEAST) AS GRADIENT SHARPENS WITH LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER 30 KNOTS. SEAS/WIND WAVES WILL BUILD OVER 7 FEET
MAKING FOR VERY DIFFICULT CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. WINDS WILL BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE SATURDAY AS GRADIENT SLACKENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT, BUT SEAS MAY HOLD AT OR ABOVE 7 FEET FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
CONDITIONS SETTLE DOWN TO MODERATE LEVELS...BRIEFLY...SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THINGS GET GOING AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK NEAR BAFFIN BAY, POST
FRONT.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: RANGES OF POTENTIAL INCLUDE WINDS OF
MODERATE SMALL CRAFT (20 TO 25 KNOTS) UP TO MINIMAL GALE (FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS) SUNDAY, DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND INTENSITY
OF THE NEXT FRONT. MORE TO FOLLOW AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER, BUT AT
MINIMUM, SUNDAY WILL NOT BE FIT FOR SMALL CRAFT WITH GUSTS AT OR
ABOVE 30 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING AND CHURNING BACK TO AT LEAST 8
FEET.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
THE RECORD/NEAR RECORD HEAT OF THE PAST WEEK HAS PUSHED NEARLY ALL
RGV LOCATIONS INTO THE TOP FIVE WARMEST NOVEMBERS ON RECORD
THROUGH THE 24TH. THOSE RANKINGS MAY RISE A BIT HIGHER AFTER TODAY
(25TH). WITH DAY/NIGHT AVERAGES ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP CLOSE TO THE
LONG-TERM NORMALS, IF NOT A TOUCH ABOVE, WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
- AND ANOTHER 10 DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE NUMBER FOR SATURDAY - WE'RE
LOCKING IN ON ANOTHER TOP-TEN WARMEST FINISH FOR EVERYONE WHEN
WE COUNT THE NUMBERS AT THE END OF NOVEMBER. SUNDAY'S NOW
EXPECTED COOL-DOWN WON'T BE ENOUGH TO FLIP THE SCRIPT.
HERE ARE THE RANKINGS, AND DEPARTURE FROM THE TOP, FOR AVAILABLE
LOCATIONS (WITH MINIMAL MISSING DATA) THROUGH THE 24TH:
BROWNSVILLE (SINCE 1878): 76.3 DEGREES, #2, -0.8 DEGREES FROM #1
MCALLEN (SINCE 1941): 76.9 DEGREES, #2, -1.1 DEGREES FROM #1
HARLINGEN (SINCE 1912): 73.2 DEGREES, #6, -1.2 DEGREES FROM #1
WESLACO (SINCE 1914): 74.6 DEGREES, #3, -1.3 DEGREES FROM #1
RGC (SINCE 1897)*: 73.9 DEGREES, #4, -2.9 DEGREES FROM #1
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 70 79 65 80 / 60 50 10 0
HARLINGEN 66 79 58 79 / 60 30 0 0
MCALLEN 69 79 60 80 / 60 40 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 65 76 54 78 / 70 40 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 79 71 76 / 60 40 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 68 79 65 78 / 60 40 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52-GOLDSMITH
LONG TERM....52-GOLDSMITH
AVIATION...52-GOLDSMITH
CLIMATE...52-GOLDSMITH
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