578
FXUS64 KBRO 221731
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1131 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1120 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
* A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 21Z FOR LINGERING
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG OVER THE BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS.
* THERE IS A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY.
* UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
MIDDLE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH IS
GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER. HOWEVER,
A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY STALLED OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS, WHICH IS PROVIDING AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL LIFT AND INSTABILITY.
THIS IS SUPPORTIVE OF A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW. ONCE THIS BOUNDARY COMPLETELY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEASTERLY AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE LIGHTER WINDS AT
NIGHT AND THE CLEARER OVERNIGHT SKIES COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING, THOUGH IT
DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE AS ROBUST AS IT WAS OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
VALUES THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE MID 60S. LONGER-RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT A COLD FRONT COULD MAKE IT TO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHICH WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO AROUND 20-30% AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL
LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR PARTICULARLY AT HRL AND
BRO AND SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE EVENING. WINDS ARE LIGHT TO
MODERATE AND SOUTHEASTERLY, AND SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR THE TAF
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT, WHICH COULD REDUCE
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
THERE IS ONGOING PATCHY MARINE FOG, AND A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 21Z FOR 0-20 NM, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS
OF PATCHY, DENSE FOG OVER THE WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY LATER AFTERNOON BUT THERE
IS THE CHANCE THAT MORE PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION OVER COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS (20-30%) THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHER
THAN FOG AND SHOWER POTENTIAL, MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OVERALL
FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ALONG WITH LOW TO MODERATE
SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 83 68 83 67 / 20 10 10 0
HARLINGEN 83 65 84 64 / 20 10 20 0
MCALLEN 85 69 86 67 / 20 10 20 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 85 66 86 65 / 10 10 20 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 69 76 70 / 20 10 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 67 80 65 / 20 10 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
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