274
FXUS64 KBRO 231148 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
548 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 538 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
* PATCHY FOG AND DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS. ADDITIONAL DENSE FOG IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.
* THERE IS A BRIEF LOW TO MEDIUM (20-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES WORKS TOWARDS THE
BORDER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GENERALLY HOLDS THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, MAINTAINING WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, OVER
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, THROUGH CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE LAST
WEEKEND OF 2025. WEAK LIFT AND INSTABILITY ALOFT PAIRED WITH
SURGES OF MOISTURE HELP KICK UP A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-30 PERCENT)
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
A LOW (LESS THAN 15 PERCENT) CHANCE OF MAINLY OFFSHORE SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BRINGING BACK A MEDIUM (30-40
PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, TO AT LEAST NEAR
NORMAL, IF NOT A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG TONIGHT HAS NOT BEEN AS GOOD AS THE PAST
FEW NIGHTS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
RANCHLANDS. NBM, SREF, AND HREF PROBABILITIES ALL KEEP A LOW TO
MEDIUM (15-30 PERCENT) CHANCE OF VISIBILITY REDUCED BELOW 1 MILE
LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY AFTER 4 OR 5 AM. WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR NOW
FOR OCCASIONAL DENSE FOG AND LET THE OVERNIGHT CREW MONITOR FOR
ANY UPGRADES. THERE IS A BETTER SIGNAL FOR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND BRIEF THE NORTH POLE ON THE POTENTIAL NEED
FOR RUDOLPH ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WITH LOW WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. A MIX OF VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. FULL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MID TO LATE MORNING AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS RETURN LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AT MFE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH A
GRADUALLY INCREASING SWELL. THE CHANCE OF RAIN DIMINISHES BUT
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. PATCH FOG AND DENSE FOG WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES ALONG THE BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 83 67 83 66 / 20 10 10 0
HARLINGEN 84 64 83 63 / 30 0 10 0
MCALLEN 87 68 86 67 / 30 10 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 86 64 86 65 / 20 10 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 69 76 69 / 20 10 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 65 81 65 / 20 10 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...63-KC
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