946
FXUS64 KBRO 252341 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
541 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
* A MEDIUM RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
* PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TONIGHT, WITH A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY OR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) POSSIBLE FOR
INLAND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
* VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S,
WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING HIGHS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY.
* A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING
COULD RESULT IN GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH FROM SATURDAY INTO NEXT
TUESDAY, WITH HAZARDOUS COASTAL AND MARINE CONDITIONS LIKELY.
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TO AS MUCH AS A MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCE
MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
THE FIRST FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS THE EXPECTATION FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG SETTING UP TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT
MOIST AIR INLAND UNDERNEATH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE
IS INCONSISTENT AT THIS TIME, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT, LIKELY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS, AS VISIBILITY COULD
REDUCE TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. IF GUIDANCE
AND CONDITIONS CHANGE THROUGHOUT TODAY, LATER SHIFTS MAY ISSUE AN
SPS FOR VISIBILITIES OF 1-3 MILES, WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
EXPERIENCING VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN A MILE.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT PATTERN
ALOFT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7 DAYS, ASIDE FROM
TROUGHING SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING
STEADY OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES SOARING TO 10-15 F ABOVE AVERAGE, PERHAPS
EVEN WARMER, WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING HIGHS, WITH INLAND
HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY THE MID/UPPER 80S THROUGH SUNDAY. A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO BREEZY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY UP TO 20-25 MPH. SUCH
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE
US/MEXICO BORDER IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER RGV HITTING 90 F. IN
CONTRAST, HIGHS IN THE 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAIN TOASTY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, FALLING TO THE MID/UPPER
60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A DRASTIC, THOUGH SOMEWHAT BRIEF, CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO START NEXT
WEEK AS A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CHANCES OF
RAIN INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY TO AS MUCH AS A MEDIUM (40-60%)
CHANCE BY MONDAY MORNING AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. POPS STEADILY DECREASE THROUGHOUT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
DOWN TO LESS THAN 10% BY TUESDAY MORNING. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AS NORTHERLY WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH, OR
HIGHER ON MONDAY. IN TURN, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY, CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL THROUGHOUT MONDAY, SO THE MOST NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS LIKELY
TO BE ON FELT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE 50S ON TUESDAY, WHICH IS 15-20 F BELOW AVERAGE. HOWEVER, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE GULF BY MIDWEEK, SETTING UP FOR
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL.
THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY, TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS PERIODS OF AROUND 7 SECONDS CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT, FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG REDUCING VSBY/CIGS TO
MVFR/IFR/LIFR AT ALL SITES. RECENT SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARDS IMPROVED VISIBILITIES TONIGHT (WIDESPREAD 3SM VS.
PREVIOUS RUNS WIDESPREAD 1/4SM), HENCE REPLACED PREVAILING DENSE
FOG WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT BRO AND MFE FROM 09-13Z THIS CYCLE.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH OVERNIGHT WIND SPEEDS - WINDS GREATER THAN
~6KT WILL MINIMIZE DEPTH AND COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG. HRL'S RURAL
LOCATION INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG PRESENCE. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY RETURN TO VFR AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE MID-
MORNING FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-4 FT) SEAS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT, BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH WITH MODERATE SEAS (3-5 FT)
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
TO AS MUCH AS A MEDIUM TO LIKELY (50-70%) CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY
MORNING. CHANCES OF RAIN DECREASE THROUGHOUT MONDAY NIGHT DOWN TO
LESS THAN 10% ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
POTENTIALLY GALE FORCE GUSTS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT
IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 69 83 68 83 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 65 85 65 86 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 69 88 69 89 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 65 88 67 89 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 70 77 70 77 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 67 82 66 82 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...69-HK
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