743
FXUS64 KBRO 260450
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1050 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1042 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
* MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* FOG FRIDAY MORNING MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS
WITH VISIBILITIES 3 MILES OR LESS.
* UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
* A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING
COULD RESULT IN GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH FROM SATURDAY INTO NEXT
TUESDAY, WITH HAZARDOUS COASTAL AND MARINE CONDITIONS LIKELY.
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TO AS MUCH AS A MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCE
MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE, MAINTAINING UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S. A PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN, ELEVATED WINDS, AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE YEAR.
NIGHTLY ROUNDS OF FOG, WITH DENSE FOG POSSIBLE, CONTINUE INTO THIS
WEEKEND. TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING IS NO EXCEPTION; FOG REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO 1-3 MILES IS EXPECTED. LOCALIZED DENSE FOG CAN REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
WHEN AND WHERE THE DENSEST OF FOG WILL OCCUR, WITH WIND BEING A KEY
FACTOR. LIGHT WINDS AT KBRO THIS EVENING HAVE ALREADY ALLOWED
VISIBILITY TO BEGIN DROPPING. LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. FOG WILL MIX
OUT MID- MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COUNTIES EAST OF ZAPATA FOR FOG 3 MILES OR
LESS THROUGH 8 AM CST, BUT AN UPGRADE TO DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT
OUT OF THE CARDS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS,
AND A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MONDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY MAY BE A CONCERN WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND DRY AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES REACHING OR DIPPING BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS MIDWEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH THIS FAR OUT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND REFINE THE FORECAST IN THE COMING
DAYS TO BETTER HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL HAZARDS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, WITH PATCHY
DENSE FOG REDUCING VSBY/CIGS TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR AT ALL SITES. RECENT
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS IMPROVED
VISIBILITIES TONIGHT IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
WITH OVERNIGHT WIND SPEEDS - WINDS GREATER THAN ~6KT WILL
MINIMIZE DEPTH AND COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG. HRL'S RURAL LOCATION
INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG PRESENCE. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
RETURN TO VFR AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE MID-MORNING FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
THROUGH SATURDAY, PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH
SOUTHERLY TO ONSHORE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS, GRADUALLY INCREASING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO GALE POSSIBLE, BUILDING ROUGH
SEAS. ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT IS A MODERATE CHANCE (50 TO 60 PERCENT)
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH GALE WATCH/WARNINGS POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE MIDWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 83 69 83 68 / 10 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 84 65 85 65 / 10 0 0 0
MCALLEN 87 69 88 69 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 86 65 88 67 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 70 77 70 / 10 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 67 82 66 / 10 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK
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