505
FXUS64 KBRO 270443
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1043 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1036 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
* A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
* THERE IS A MEDIUM TO LIKELY (40-60%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
* HAZARDOUS BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DROPS FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL-ABOVE NORMAL, TO NEAR RECORD
BREAKING, HEAT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON MONDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE CONSISTENTLY TRENDED COOLER
WITH EACH MODEL RUN, JUST GETTING INTO THE RANGE OF THE NAM
GUIDANCE, WHICH HANDLES THESE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASSES VERY WELL.
CURRENT NAM GUIDANCE EARLY MONDAY MORNING SHOWS A RATHER QUICK 20
DEGREE DROP JUST BEHIND THE FRONT, LIKELY KEEPING THE RANCHLANDS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND COOLING THE RGV INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S INTO THE AFTERNOON, AROUND 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON
SUNDAY. SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ON TUESDAY, LEADING TO THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK TUESDAY NIGHT, DUE TO EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS
AND UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES IN THE RGV. HAVE ADJUSTED DOWN
FROM NBM ACCORDINGLY.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE TRYING TO DRY THE AIR MASS OUT
RELATIVELY QUICKLY, WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO
POTENTIALLY REACH RFD CRITERIA. IF RH STAYS UP, OR WINDS DROP OFF
QUICKER, THERE WILL BE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL.
PERSISTENT AND STRONG CAA WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 50
DEGREES ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE GULF WATERS FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO AN EARLY
SEASON COLD STUN EVENT FOR SEA TURTLES, MAINLY IN THE BAY AND
SHALLOW COASTAL WATERS. PELICANS MAY ALSO LAND ON COASTAL BRIDGES
AND ROADWAYS MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. BEACH CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS,
ELEVATED SURF, AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS AND
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT REDUCING VISIBILITY NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MID SATURDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING SWELL AND SCEC CONDITIONS
EACH AFTERNOON ON THE BAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON MONDAY
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OCCASIONALLY REACHING GALE
FORCE, A MEDIUM TO LIKELY (35-70%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. PATCHY FOG MAY
REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES ALONG THE BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS
TONIGHT, MAINLY NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD. A GALE WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED FOR MONDAY, WITH AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY,
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG. THIS MAY LEAD TO
A PERIOD OF FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CRITERIA BEING MET, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS JIM HOGG, BROOKS, AND HIDALGO COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 69 84 69 84 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 66 86 65 87 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 69 88 69 90 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 67 89 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 70 77 71 78 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 67 83 67 84 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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