082
FXUS64 KBRO 281135 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
535 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 517 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
- NEAR OR RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH IS LIKELY ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE IS A MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4)
HEAT RISK FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS, AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RGV ON MONDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AREA WIDE ON MONDAY DUE TO VERY
LOW HUMIDITY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
- HAZARDOUS BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ALSO LIKELY.
- COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY BEFORE A STRETCH OF SEASONABLE AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER
TO START 2026.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S MORE TYPICAL OF MID OCTOBER AS OPPOSED TO LATE
DECEMBER. LOOKING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE +20 TO +23C RANGE, WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES ARE
NEAR AT AT DAILY MAXIMUM VALUES ACCORDING TO THE SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE BROWNSVILLE, TX UPPER AIR SITE. A SEA BREEZE
SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON, KEEPING TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY IN CHECK FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-69E.
OTHERWISE, PREVAILING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN GUST TO
20-25 MPH, LOCALLY 30 MPH BUT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF I-69C/US-281, WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER ACROSS THE
UPPER VALLEY LOCALES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. OVERALL, WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND OCEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S AND AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR 80, THE FINAL SUNDAY OF
2025 LOOKS TO BE A DECENT BEACH DAY. AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST,
THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OF 4 MINOR HEAT RISK FOR SUNDAY. APPARENT
TEMPERATURES 85-90 COMBINED WITH HEAT UNUSUAL FOR LATE DECEMBER EVEN
FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS STANDARDS COULD AFFECT THOSE SENSITIVE OR
UNACCLIMATIZED SO BE SURE TO HYDRATE REGULARLY AND NOT GET CAUGHT
OFF GUARD IF SPENDING PROLONGED PERIODS OUTSIDE. FOR THOSE TIRED OF
THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SUMMER, A HUGE CHANGE AND WELCOME RELIEF IS ON
THE WAY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
PUSH A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OWING TO THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL, BUT HI-
RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT,
REACHING THE RGV CLOSER TO THE PRE-DAWN INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS
OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL, WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSION CLOSE
TO ZERO AND SHOULD WINDS SLACKEN OFF JUST ENOUGH. BUT NO WIDESPREAD
FOG IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S RIGHT PRIOR TO THE FRONT, QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE 50S BY
DAY BREAK ACROSS ALL LOCALES EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER RGV AND SPI. WITH
925MB WINDS PROGGED TO BE IN THE 45-50 KT RANGE FROM THE PRE-DAWN TO
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY AND THE NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OWING TO 925MB TEMPERATURES PLUNGING TO THE +3 TO +5C
RANGE, THERE IS AT LEAST 80 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS
EXCEEDING 40 MPH FOR AT LEAST 2 HOURS OR MORE IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. FOLLOWING
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED AN
AREA WIDE WIND ADVISORY.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WIND CHILL VALUES COULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND UPPER VALLEY. SUCH IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT THAT SOME LOCATIONS WOULD LIKELY REGISTER
A 35 TO 40 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE THICK STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY ADD TO THE
CHILL AS WARMING FROM DAYTIME INSOLATION WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. IN
OTHER WORDS, IT WILL FEEL A LOT LIKE WINTER AFTER A PROLONGED
STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLE, LATE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH.
THERE ARE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO HOW DRY THE AIR MASS
IS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FOR MORE DETAILS, PLEASE REFER TO THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION SECTION.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE GALE WATCHES TO GALE WARNINGS
ACROSS THE WATERS GIVEN NOW THERE IS A 80 PERCENT CONFIDENCE IN
SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS OR FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS (AOA 34 KT)
BETWEEN MONDAY PRE-DAWN HOURS AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION LEADING TO NEAR DRY
ADIABATIC LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN THE WARM OCEAN SSTS (WHICH
ARE STILL IN THE LOW 70S) AND 925MB TEMPERATURES (PROGGED TO FALL TO
+3 TO +5C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON).
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD SEE SOME OF THE
COLDEST, IF NOT THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR
ACROSS OUR REGION. IF WINDS MANAGE TO DECOUPLE, IT'S NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS COULD SEE
ISOLATED FROST WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWS REACHING THE
UPPER 30S. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE ANY FROST SHOULD BE
ISOLATED.
DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO
THE 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH RANGE, WHICH IS NEAR OR AT DAILY MINIMUM VALUES
ACCORDING TO SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE REGION. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 900MB WHERE VERY DRY DEW POINTS IN THE
20S ALONG WITH 35-40 KT WINDS COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS
COMBINATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR REGION. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION SECTION
FOR MORE DETAILS. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES SO FAR
THIS COOL SEASON, THE COLD AIR DOES NOT STICK AROUND FOR TOO LONG.
AS WE TURN THE CALENDAR TO 2026, WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN VEER TO THE
SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEW YEAR'S DAY, AND CONTINUE TO WARM TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND. FOR REFERENCE, NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS ARE IN THE LOW 70S FOR EARLY JANUARY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOW 50S. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CPC'S 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK
SHOWING 60-70 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS OUR REGION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING AS AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT LEADS TO
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
NORTHERLY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS ALL WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON MONDAY. WINDS
WILL BLOW AT 25-35 KT WITH 40-45 KT GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9-14 FT ACROSS ALL OUTER WATERS. THE ANOMALOUSLY
WARM GULF WATERS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR (LOW TO MID 70S SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES) WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HAVE UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO GALE WARNING
ACROSS ALL THE WATERS FROM PRE-DAWN HOURS ON MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. WHILE CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND LESS BLUSTERY BY
SUNDOWN MONDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM SSTS COULD LEAD TO EFFICIENT
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND AS A RESULT SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
BORDERLINE GALE FORCE WINDS WELL INTO TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
AS THE WELL-ADVERTISED STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON MONDAY, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FALL FROM AROUND 1.4 INCHES OR 90TH PERCENTILE OF SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE BROWNSVILLE, TX UPPER AIR SITE TO 0.5 INCHES
OR 10TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE DECEMBER. THIS,
COMBINED WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF 40+ MPH GUSTS
MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON (WHICH RESULTED IN THE
ISSUANCE OF AN AREA WIDE WIND ADVISORY), HAS LED TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. AT THIS TIME, TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICES IS FORECASTING
MODERATE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA AND LOW
FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF FOR MONDAY. ANOTHER FOOD FOR
THOUGHT IS THAT MOST OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS INTO PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER VALLEY ARE IN A D2 SEVERE TO D3 EXTREME DROUGHT. IF THE
DRY AIR FROM ALOFT (925 TO 850MB DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
SUB-ZERO) MIXES DOWN MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN FORECAST TO THE
SURFACE, IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE MINIMUM RH
VALUES FALL TO BELOW 10 PERCENT. THERE IS A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
SURFACE DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS ON TUESDAY, BUT THE
SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER. AT THIS TIME, THE
THINKING IS THAT A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS PROBABLY NEEDED FOR
MOST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH A RED FLAG WARNING CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE EXISTING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
BROWNSVILLE, HARLINGEN, AND MCALLEN ARE LISTED BELOW.
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 28TH
BROWNSVILLE: 90 DEGREES IN 2024
HARLINGEN: 88 DEGREES IN 2024
MCALLEN: 91 DEGREES IN 2024
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 85 59 70 47 / 0 50 50 0
HARLINGEN 87 54 66 42 / 0 60 30 0
MCALLEN 89 55 65 46 / 0 60 30 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 89 51 63 47 / 0 60 30 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 62 69 54 / 0 50 40 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 83 58 69 48 / 0 50 30 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ248>255-351-
353>355-451-454-455.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-
155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...64-KATZ
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