012
FXUS64 KBRO 290623 CCA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1223 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1032 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS, AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS FROM 3 AM MONDAY MORNING UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY EVENING.
- VERY STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS MARINE
CONDITIONS AND COASTAL HAZARDS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN
EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY MORNING UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY EVENING WHILE
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY GO INTO
EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY MORNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
ON MONDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY AND BREEZY
WINDS. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS FROM 6 AM MONDAY MORNING UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY EVENING.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
A STRONG AND POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING REMAINS ON TRACK
TO SEND A POWERFUL COLD FRONT, DIVING THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, AREAS OF PATCHY FOG HAVE BEGAN TO FORM DUE TO ENHANCED
MOISTURE POOLING, WHICH COULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT, A BROKEN LINE OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BRINGS A MEDIUM TO
LIKELY (60-80%) CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE ENTIRE REGION, WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT ITSELF IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
ENTER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM TONIGHT,
POSSIBLY PASSING THROUGH THE ENTIRE RGV BETWEEN ROUGHLY 3-6 AM
MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING STRONG NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF
AROUND 20-30 MPH, WITH GUSTS OF 45 MPH OR HIGHER, ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT'S LEADING EDGE, PERSISTING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS SUCH, A WIND ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT ACROSS ALL THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) FROM 3 AM LATE TONIGHT TO 6 PM MONDAY
EVENING. GUSTS OF 50 MPH, OR GREATER, ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
IN SOME SPOTS, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL. MEANWHILE, CHANCES OF RAIN DECREASE FAIRLY
QUICKLY FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY,
THOUGH SOME POP-UP SHOWERS COULD OCCUR INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS THE WINDS USHER IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR, MONDAY
MORNING LOWS COULD FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS, MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE RGV AND UPPER 50S
TO LOWER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
RGV. DUE TO THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) CONTINUING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY, THE MORNING LOWS MAY ALSO BE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE DAYTIME'S HIGH TEMPERATURES, POTENTIALLY ONLY
WARMING BY 5 DEGREES, INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE
STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, THERE
IS CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE, THICK STRATUS
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALONG AND WEST OF I-69 C/US 281, WINDS DROP FROM
AROUND 10-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH, TO 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO
15-20 MPH OVERNIGHT. FURTHER EAST, WINDS DECREASE FROM 15-20 MPH,
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH, IN THE EVENING DOWN TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH BY TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, ALONG THE COAST,
WINDS DECREASE FROM 25-30 MPH, GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH, IN THE
EVENING TO 20-25 MPH, GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH BY THE MORNING HOURS.
STRATUS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT, PREVENTING FULL
NIGHTTIME RADIATIONAL COOLING, KEEPING LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
REGION, WHICH IS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. FOLLOWING,
WINDS IMPROVE FURTHER THROUGHOUT TUESDAY, BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS BY TUESDAY EVENING ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES. CAA KEEPS
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY,
FALLING TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW TO MID 40S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS VERY STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF ROUGHEN SEAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR THE SHORE. A
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT GOES INTO EFFECT FROM 4 AM TONIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY EVENING AS WINDS BUILD WATER LEVELS,
LEADING TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF NARROW BEACHES THROUGH SEVERAL
HOURS FOLLOWING HIGH TIDE, WHICH IS AT 2:12 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON. A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY GO INTO EFFECT
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WAVES OF AT LEAST 5
TO 8 FEET CRASH WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. COMBINED WITH LONG WAVE
PERIODS OF 7-9 SECONDS, DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, RETURNING WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
START A WARMING TREND INTO THE LATER PARTS OF THIS WEEK, WITH 80S
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER, MUCH WEAKER, FRONT IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE COULD PASS NORTH OF THE
REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AT THE
TIME OF THIS WRITING. ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION HAS
STARTED TO DEVELOP PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AND OR LOW CEILINGS, WHICH
HAS LED TO IFR VISIBILITY (1 SM) WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT KHRL,
MVFR AT KMFE (CEILINGS AROUND 1,700 FT) AND VFR AT KBRO. LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, PERHAPS BY AROUND 11/12 Z,
CHANCES OF RAIN FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT, BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY
FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING AND MVFR
CEILINGS (OR LOWER) AT ALL TERMINALS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION. AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, PERHAPS BY 12/13 Z
MONDAY, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BRING SUSTAINED WINDS TO AROUND
19-22 KNOTS, GUSTING UP TO 40 KNOTS, OR HIGHER, INTO MID-
MORNING. MEANWHILE, BRIEF SHOWERS MAY BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN. AIRPORT WEATHER WARNINGS (AWWS) ARE LIKELY AT KHRL AND KBRO
FOR NON-CONVECTIVE WINDS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER AS WELL AS FOR
POSSIBLE LIGHTNING AT KBRO. BY THE AFTERNOON, OVERCAST MVFR OR VFR
CEILINGS PERSIST AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AROUND 15-20
KNOTS, GUSTING TO 30-34 KNOTS, OR HIGHER, ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL AWWS ARE POSSIBLE FOR WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BRINGING A BROKEN
LINE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
BRIEFLY INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TO A MEDIUM TO LIKELY (60-80%)
CHANCE. MEANWHILE, RAPIDLY DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE FRONT BRINGS GALE FORCE NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY
WINDS, STRONG GALE FORCE GUSTS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH (9-14 FOOT)
MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. A GALE WARNING GOES INTO
EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS (0-60 NM) FROM 3 AM
MONDAY MORNING UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY EVENING. NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS, GALE FORCE GUSTS AND ROUGH (9-12 FOOT) SEAS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AND IMPROVE ON TUESDAY,
BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODERATE (3-4 FOOT) SEAS
POSSIBLY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY BY
WEDNESDAY, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY OR SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-4 FOOT) SEAS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY WITH LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE
OF RAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
SEVERAL FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ON MONDAY AS STRONG NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FILTER
IN MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIR THROUGHOUT MONDAY ALONG AND BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY 20 FOOT
WINDS 15-25 MPH, GUSTING TO 45 MPH OR GREATER WILL COINCIDE WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING AS LOW AS AROUND 20% WEST
OF US 281/I-69 C TO AS HIGH AS 35% EAST OF I-69 E. ADDITIONALLY,
A D2 SEVERE TO D3 EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES WITH DRY TO CURED
FUELS. ALL OF THIS CONSIDERED, A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT GOES INTO
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS (JIM HOGG, BROOKS, INLAND AND
COASTAL KENEDY) AND THE RGV (STARR, HIDALGO, INLAND WILLACY AND
INLAND CAMERON) FROM 6 AM MONDAY MORNING UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 60 61 47 60 / 60 50 0 0
HARLINGEN 57 58 45 59 / 50 30 0 0
MCALLEN 54 55 47 61 / 60 40 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 51 53 47 61 / 60 40 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 64 48 60 / 60 50 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 60 61 46 60 / 60 40 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ248>255-351-
353>355-451-454-455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM CST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
TXZ451-454-455.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-
155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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