290
FXUS64 KBRO 310437
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1037 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1024 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
- MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR A
LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO RESUME ON WEDNESDAY.
- LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PROMOTE INCREASED
CHANCES OF PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/NEW
YEARS EVE.
- DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
A MAINLY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
MAINTAINS RIDGING OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS KEEPS LIGHT TO CALM, VARIABLE AT TIMES,
NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING,
LEADING TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH
WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 F ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS, LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS WELL AS MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT
NEW YEARS EVE AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE, RESULTING IN
THE START OF A WARMING TREND, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING TO NEAR
AVERAGE, INTO MOSTLY THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST, BEFORE FALLING TO MOSTLY THE 40S/50S INLAND AND 60S NEAR
THE COAST BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON NEW YEARS DAY. AS
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES, PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF US 281/I-69C.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION
RESUME BY THURSDAY MORNING, CAUSING HIGHS TO BECOME ABOVE AVERAGE,
RISING TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY AND MID/UPPER 80S
ON FRIDAY, CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH IS 10-
15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. NEAR RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING
TEMPERATURES BECOME POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY ONWARD. MEANWHILE,
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S RETURN BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS FLOW REGIME MAY BE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY WHEN A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH OF A REGION,
POTENTIALLY SENDING A DRY AND WEAK COLD FRONT, WHICH COULD BRIEFLY
SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE A DRASTIC CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE,
OVERNIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE LIKELY TO ALLOW
FOR ROUNDS OF PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.
AS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
WAVES REDUCE TO 2-3 FEET WITH 6 SECOND PERIODS, THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS DECREASES FROM MODERATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO A LOW RISK ON
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
CALM WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL AS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS MAINTAIN THROUGH TAF PERIOD. GENTLE
NORTHERLY WINDS RESUME WEDNESDAY MORNING, BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND CALM WEDNESDAY EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
AT KBRO AND KHRL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE (4-5 FEET) SEAS
TONIGHT IMPROVE TO LIGHT TO GENTLE WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-3
FT) SEAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING, SHIFTING WINDS
BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE EVENING HOURS AND SOUTHERLY BY
THURSDAY MORNING AS SEAS LOWER TO 1-2 FEET. A PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY EVENING, LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME MODERATE TO
FRESH WITH MODERATE (3-5 FEET) SEAS POSSIBLE. LIGHT TO GENTLE,
MODERATE AT TIMES, WINDS RETURN ON SATURDAY AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE
BRIEF SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY ON
SUNDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHT SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 44 70 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 40 70 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 45 73 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 41 71 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 55 67 60 74 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 45 68 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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