021
FXUS64 KBRO 312305 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
505 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 500 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
- THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN
THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE I-69E/US77
CORRIDOR.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND NEXT
WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY.
- A WEAK COOL FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, DROPPING
SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN MONDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS COOL
FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, AS MID-TO-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
VEER FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON.
TOMORROW'S HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S, AND THEN WARM
UP INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO WARM FROM THE MID-40S TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 50S BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE
THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW, BUT THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BEGINNING TONIGHT.
GENERALLY, FOG FORMATION IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE VERY LATE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AT TIMES OF PEAK RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HOWEVER, IF THE TEMPERATURES DECREASE RAPIDLY ENOUGH TONIGHT, THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM (PARTICULARLY IN THE
COASTAL COUNTIES) A FEW HOURS PAST MIDNIGHT. LATE NIGHT NEW YEARS
TRAVELERS WILL WANT TO EXERCISE CAUTION IF THEY HAPPEN TO ENCOUNTER
ANY AREAS OF PATCHY FOG, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE I-69E/US77 CORRIDOR.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK COOL FRONT MAY PASS
THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH
A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM (BUT INCREASING)
THAT THIS FRONT WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PICKING UP ON THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE PLAINS FOR A FEW DAYS NOW, BUT THE MODELS
ARE ONLY NOW SUGGESTING THAT ANY ASSOCIATED FRONT COULD ACTUALLY
MAKE IT TO OUR AREA. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING THE SHORTWAVE AXIS A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER JET MAX WINDS ALOFT, WHICH
INCREASES OUR AREA'S ODDS OF SEEING A FRONT.
IF THIS WEAK FRONT DOES MAKE IT TO OUR AREA, IT WILL BE A DRY FRONT
WITH NO ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER FOR SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY. HUMIDITY COULD
ALSO BE A BIT LESS ON SUNDAY AS WELL DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION
CHANGE. ANY TEMPERATURE RELIEF WE MAY SEE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED,
THOUGH, SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START WARMING FROM THE
LOWER 80S ON MONDAY BACK TO THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE (8-12 KNOTS) EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BECOMING LIGHT TO
GENTLE, OR CALM, BEYOND SUNSET, BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW
POSSIBILITY PATCHY FOG NEAR SUNRISE AT KBRO AND KHRL, WHICH MAY
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE BEYOND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING, WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOMING A MODERATE IN THE AFTERNOON (5-10 KNOTS, GUSTING
TO 15-20 KNOTS).
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
WINDS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ON THE
GULF WATERS TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT OTHER THAN THIS, MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (2-4 FEET) SEAS
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF TONIGHT AND REMAIN
SO UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY, WHEN A WEAK COOL FRONT MAY MOMENTARILY
SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
BACK TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 54 79 64 84 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 49 80 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 52 81 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 47 81 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 61 74 68 78 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 53 78 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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