032
FXUS64 KBRO 010425
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1025 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1013 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH DAILY MINOR (LEVEL 1
OF 4) HEAT RISK ALONG AND WEST OF US 281/I-69 C BECOMING
WIDESPREAD FOR MOST INLAND AREAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEAR
RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING HIGHS ARE LIKELY.
- WEAK COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO, OR THROUGH, THE REGION ON
SATURDAY, BUT ONLY COOLING TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT BEGINNING THURSDAY
NIGHT.
- ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE MAIN FOCUS
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY HEADING INTO THE
FIRST DAYS OF 2026 AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO
EXTENDS RIDGING OVER OUR REGION. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF RESULTS IN SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST WITH DAILY HIGHS WARMING FROM THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ON
THURSDAY TO MAINLY MID/UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MINOR (LEVEL
1 OF 4) HEAT RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF US 281/I-69 C.
IN THE NEAR TERM, GUIDANCE THIS EVENING HAS BECOME CONSISTENT
THAT LINGERING DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT, THOUGH ISOLATED SPOTS COULD STILL SEE SOME PATCHY AREAS
OF FOG AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF
US-281/I-69 C AS TEMPERATURES MINIMIZE IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS
THE REGION. OTHERWISE, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SURROUNDING SUNRISE,
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
REACH THE 50S AND 60S.
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS FLOW REGIME BEGINS ON THURSDAY AS A SERIES
OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM
ENHANCE WINDS ALOFT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS AS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH. AS THE FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY PASSES NORTH OF
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, ENHANCED LOWER LEVEL (700 MB) WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE BIG
BEND, IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN A DRY LINE, POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS DOWNSLOPING FROM
THE SIERRA MADRE FOOTHILLS, PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT, A SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LEADING TO A WIDESPREAD MINOR HEAT RISK FOR INLAND AREAS
AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S, EVEN NEAR 90 F IN SOME
AREAS WEST OF US-281/I-69 C ON SATURDAY, WHICH IS NEAR 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE; NEAR RECORD OR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY. FRIDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
US, SENDING A STRONGER MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS
AND POSSIBLY A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO, OR THROUGH, THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, DESPITE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES ONLY COOL
BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGHS AND LOWS
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RECORD
BREAKING HEAT POSSIBLE AS SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A
WARMING TREND RETURN MONDAY.
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OR CALM CALM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, PICKING UP TO A MODERATE
SOUTHERLY BREEZE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON OF AROUND 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE REMAINING BREEZY AT TIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST-SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT (1-2 FT) SEAS BECOME
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF.
WINDS ENHANCE TO MODERATE TO FRESH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, LIKELY
LEADING TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE HEADLINES ACROSS ALL LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE OFFSHORE (20-60 NM) GULF WATERS, AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE WESTERN GULF; MODERATE (3-5 FEET) SEAS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS DIMINISH TO GENTLE AND SEAS
BECOME SLIGHT (1-2 FEET) SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A POSSIBLE WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY. LIGHT TO GENTLE,
MODERATE AT TIMES, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 54 79 64 84 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 49 80 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 52 81 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 47 81 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 61 74 68 78 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 53 78 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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