255
FXUS64 KBRO 020419
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1019 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1012 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH SHOULD COOL
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 80S FOR SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WARM AGAIN TO THE MID-80S ON MONDAY.
- PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS.
- SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO
ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
WHILE GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN CLOSE
TO RECORD HIGHS. THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS FOR THE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST OF WHICH IS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE AREA THAT WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
BRING DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT TO THE REGION. THEN AT THE SURFACE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MORE
WARM, MOIST AIR TO THE AREA. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS MORE TYPICAL
FOR THE SUMMER TIME, BUT IT IS THE REASON THAT WE ARE SEEING ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME
LOW 90S FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE MODELS THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY THAT WILL BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S AND UPPER
70S. THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT, THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH FOR A SHORT DURATION OF TIME. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE BACK TO THE EAST AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY AND
THEN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY. WHILE THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DROP THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WITH VERY WEAK WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT, THE CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER AT THIS TIME ARE LIMITED.
MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS VERY TRANQUIL
ONCE AGAIN, AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP AGAIN WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW TO THE UPPER 80S. WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED,
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIMITED FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE ROGUE SHOWER
OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
FINALLY, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG LATE EACH NIGHT TO AROUND
SUNRISE EACH MORNING. WHILE NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME, IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT PATCHY FOG COULD IMPACT ISOLATED LOCATIONS DURING
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TIMES. MOTORISTS WILL NEED TO HEED CAUTION
IN CASE OF AN LOCALLY DENSE PATCHY FOG SHOULD IT DEVELOP. AS FOR
ALONG THE COAST, THERE IS AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN THE RIP CURRENT
RISK TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME DUE TO INCREASES WINDS ALONG THE COAST
AND HIGHER SWELL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AT ALL
TAF SITES. HOWEVER, AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW HRL AND MFE MIGHT SEE
SOME IMPACTS FROM FOG AND LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. THESE
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY MID-MORNING. IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE FOR BRO TO SEE SOME FOG AS WELL, HOWEVER DUE TO THE
CONTINUE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS, FOG IMPACTS HAVE BEEN
LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR BRO. OUTSIDE OF THAT, WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS PICKING
UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE IN THE MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
WHILE THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
AND GULF WATERS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN
STRONGER WINDS DUE TO THE INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THAT COULD BRING SOME SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS TO THE GULF WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MONDAY.
AFTERWARDS, THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE FAVORABLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 63 84 65 87 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 59 86 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 60 88 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 55 88 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 78 67 77 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 62 84 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...64-KATZ
LONG TERM....64-KATZ
AVIATION...64-KATZ
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