722
FXUS64 KBRO 161116 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
516 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 508 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
- WARM FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SATURDAY BRINGS COOLER
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
- LOW TO MODERATE (20-40%) RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO CLIMB TO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE US, BRINGING A SURGES OF COLDER AIR TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
WEEKEND.
THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING, LIKELY KEEPING
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES LOOK
TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30-40% ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. BOTH THE 18Z AND 0Z RUNS OF THE NAM
FEATURE A GREATER WESTERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH, DRIVING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN SUSTAINED CAA ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY,
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
PATTERN WOULD ALSO LIKELY SUPPORT DEEPER NORTHERLY WINDS, LIMITING
RAIN CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THIS SETUP, NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD POTENTIALLY SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER EAST, ALONG THE GULF COAST OR INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW REMAINING SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, AND
MUCH BRIEFER CAA SATURDAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT (MID-30S TO MID 40S), AND PROLONGED
RAIN CHANCES AS AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN WOULD LIKELY SETUP ALONG
THE COAST. IN THIS SCENARIO, LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE COULD CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN DAY MORNING.
IN EITHER SCENARIO, FREEZING PRECIPITATION LOOKS UNLIKELY THIS
WEEKEND, WITH THE COLDER SCENARIO LIKELY REMAINING DRY, AND
TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING IN THE WETTER
SCENARIO. GIVEN THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINING ON THE WARMER
SIDE, THAT SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY, HOWEVER THE NAM
DOES TEND TO HANDLE COLD FRONTS BETTER THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO THAT
SCENARIO IS WORTH MENTIONING, AND CERTAINLY SHOULDN'T BE RULED
OUT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 60S AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BEFORE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
EVENING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH MID-WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY, AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INCREASES FORCING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS, WHILE A SECOND COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY TURNING NORTHERLY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY,
HOWEVER A COLD FRONT ARRIVING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
BRING ADVERSE TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR THE
GULF WATERS AS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BUILD SEAS TO 8-9 FEET. WIND
SPEEDS ALONG THE LAGUNA MADRE WILL LIKELY WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY OR SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. GENERALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 78 58 69 48 / 0 10 40 40
HARLINGEN 80 54 67 42 / 0 10 30 30
MCALLEN 82 55 67 43 / 0 10 20 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 81 50 65 38 / 0 0 20 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 62 68 55 / 0 10 50 50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 57 69 48 / 0 10 40 40
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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