450
FXUS64 KBRO 161741
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1141 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1120 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WHICH WILL INCREASE MARINE AND
BEACH HAZARDS, AND COULD POSSIBLY ELEVATE FIRE CONDITIONS IN
THE DRIER NORTHWEST RANCHLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
30-50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF I-69C TOMORROW.
- THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH AND EVEN BRIEFLY HIT
FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE AREA MID-NEXT WEEK, BUT
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY. IF THIS FRONT STALLS, WE COULD HAVE
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
...
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
A LARGE TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL US AND IS EXPECTED TO
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT TO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION, ALONG WITH A LOW TO
MEDIUM (30-50%) CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-
69C, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING CLOSE TO THE COAST. THERE IS
ALSO A SMALL WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL INCREASED FIRE ACTIVITY FOR THE
NORTHWEST RANCHLANDS, AS HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 20
PERCENT WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
FOR MORE DETAILS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. THESE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TOMORROW NIGHT AND BECOME MORE CALM,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN RANCHLANDS. THOUGH SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY TOMORROW FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN CLEARING TOMORROW NIGHT,
WHICH WILL INCREASE RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THESE CALMER WINDS, CLEARER SKIES, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
USHERED IN BY THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE COLDEST LOW
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON THUS FAR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY (SEE
CLIMATE DISCUSSION).
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S (AS CLOUD
COVER WILL HANG ON A BIT LONGER OVER THE VALLEY AND WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE MORE ELEVATED), BUT THE UPPER AND WESTERN RANCHLANDS WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW THE MID-30S, WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A
LIGHT FREEZE IN SOME ISOLATED AREAS. LOWER-LYING AREAS WHERE COLD
AIR TENDS TO POOL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE IF TEMPERATURES DO
INDEED APPROACH FREEZING. THESE COLDER LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
AND 40S ARE EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND A FEW MORE NIGHTS BEFORE WARMING
ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY, AND THEN
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY
WHICH COULD LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT OUR AREA. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THIS SECOND FRONT COULD
STALL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE (20-40%)
OF BENEFICIAL RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE IS
ALSO TEASING AT ELEVATED QPF VALUES AROUND THIS TIME TOO, WHICH WILL
BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, THERE IS TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROVIDE A CLEAR PICTURE OF HOW MUCH RAIN WE
COULD RECEIVE, AND WHICH AREAS COULD RECEIVE THE MOST. ASSUMING
THIS FRONT DOES INDEED STALL IN OUR REGION, IT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO ALSO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BY THURSDAY AS
WELL.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY, AND THEN AGAIN TOMORROW. THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME ELEVATED SURF TOMORROW EVENING INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH HIGH SURF ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS WITH A WIND SHIFT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT (AROUND 10-11Z) FROM A SOUTHEASTERLY TO A
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS
COULD BECOME GUSTY BY 14Z AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TOMORROW MORNING FOR BOTH THE
BAY AND THE GULF WATERS FROM 11Z THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY DUE TO ELEVATED
WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ELEVATED
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS FIRST AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY AS THE WINDS QUICKLY PICK UP. THIS WILL BE
IMPORTANT FOR BOATERS TO KEEP IN MIND IN THE LOWER GULF WATERS AND
LAGUNA MADRE AS CONDITIONS MIGHT STILL SEEM DECEPTIVELY OKAY BEFORE
THE HIGHER WINDS ARRIVE. ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THEY
BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE BEFORE A SECOND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY STALL, WHICH
MAKES THE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS UNCERTAIN A THIS TIME, BUT SCEC
CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW (BETWEEN AROUND 21Z TO 02Z) OF POTENTIAL
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR THE NORTHWESTERN RANCHLAND COUNTIES
(ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, AND BROOKS COUNTIES) SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 20% AT A
TIME WHEN WINDS COULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED (10-15 KNOTS) DUE
TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GIVEN THAT THIS AREA IS ALREADY IN A STATE
OF D3 DROUGHT WITH VERY DRY FUELS, ANYTHING THAT CATCHES IN SUCH LOW
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BURN RAPIDLY. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY
BE NEEDED DEPENDING ON HOW THE WINDS TREND AS ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE
COME IN.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
WINTER 2025/2026 HAS BEEN RELATIVELY NON-DESCRIPT THUS FAR WHEN IT
COMES TO COLD TEMPERATURES. THERE HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF DAYS WHEN
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FELL 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, BUT FOR THE
MOST PART THAT HAS MEANT UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE RANCHLANDS
AND IN THE 40S ACROSS THE LOWER/MID VALLEY. SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BRING THE TEMPERATURES TO OR BELOW THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON, SO FAR
FOR MANY IN THE REGION.BELOW IS THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE,
AND THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TO DATE SINCE DECEMBER 1.
LOCATION JAN. 18 FORECAST COLDEST SO FAR (DATE)
BROWNSVILLE 47 46 (DEC. 31)
HARLINGEN/VALLEY 40 40 (JAN. 15)
MCALLEN/MILLER 42 46 (DEC. 7 AND JAN. 15)
EDINBURG (CITY) 42 45 (JAN. 15 LATEST)
WESLACO 42 44 (DEC. 9)
RAYMONDVILLE 40 40 (DEC. 31
RIO GRANDE CITY 37 37 (JAN. 15)
MCCOOK 38 42 (DEC. 31)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 58 69 48 65 / 10 60 30 10
HARLINGEN 54 67 42 64 / 0 40 20 0
MCALLEN 55 67 43 66 / 0 30 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 50 65 38 66 / 0 20 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 62 68 55 62 / 10 60 40 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 57 69 48 64 / 10 50 30 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
FIRE...55-MM
CLIMATE...52-GOLDSMITH
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