100
FXUS64 KBRO 170516
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1116 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1110 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
INCREASE MARINE AND BEACH HAZARDS, AND ELEVATE FIRE CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF
I-69C TOMORROW.
- THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH AND EVEN BRIEFLY HIT
FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.
- ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE AREA MID-NEXT WEEK, BUT
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY. IF THIS FRONT STALLS, WE COULD HAVE
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, AS WELL
AS LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY. AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS
HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS, INCREASING CONFIDENCE
IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO
THE LOW 40S IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES MAY
BRIEFLY DROP BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ZAPATA, BROOKS, AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES.
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS WEEKEND WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. INCREASED
RIP CURRENT STRENGTH AND ACTIVITY, AS WELL AS INCREASED SURF
HEIGHT WILL LIKELY WARRANT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS STATEMENT THIS WEEKEND.
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL PRESENT AN ELEVATED RISK FOR ERRATIC WILDFIRE BEHAVIOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING,
ALLOWING FOR GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE 70S MONDAY AND MAY REACH
INTO THE LOW 80S BY THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US AND NORTHERN
MEXICO MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO AROUND
30-40%. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS FRONT REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT BRO TONIGHT, WHILE HRL
AND MFE WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING AND BECOMING
GUSTY LATE MORNING. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY PRODUCING MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN BY
SATURDAY EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SATURDAY UNTIL 9 AM
SUNDAY FOR THE GULF WATERS AND THE LAGUNA MADRE. STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY BUILD SEAS TO 7-10 FEET SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY, THOUGH A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRES. GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN BY MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE MIDWEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL POSE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR
FIRE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING FROM 15-25 %
FOR PORTIONS OF ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, BROOKS AND INLAND KENEDY
COUNTIES. 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE BORDERLINE FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA, THOUGH GUSTS
ABOVE CRITERIA WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY,
DRY FUELS IN THE AREA WILL FURTHER SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SATURDAY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS, A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY.
WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO BE LOWER SUNDAY, CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER IN WIND SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW CRITERIA, SO A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT LIKELY WON’T BE NEEDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 59 66 46 64 / 0 40 30 0
HARLINGEN 54 66 38 64 / 0 30 20 0
MCALLEN 54 66 41 66 / 0 30 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 50 66 36 65 / 0 20 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 62 66 54 61 / 10 50 40 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 57 67 47 63 / 0 40 30 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...60-BE
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