417
FXUS64 KBRO 172341
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
541 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 533 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
- A MINOR FREEZE IS NOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
OF ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, BROOKS, AND KENEDY COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE
SUNDAY. TENDER VEGETATION MAY BE DAMAGED BY THE COMBINATION OF
LOW TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY.
- WILDFIRE SPREAD DANGER CONTINUES AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS JIM HOGG, BROOKS, KENEDY, NORTHERN STARR,
AND NORTHERN HIDALGO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LOW HUMIDITY
SUNDAY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED, THOUGH WIND WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER.
- DANGEROUS SURF, GUSTY WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
MAKE BOATING CONDITIONS DIFFICULT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, AND
LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACH.
- SOME WELCOME RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING FAVORING THE COASTAL COUNTIES, WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT ON SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT ACROSS THE MID/UPPER VALLEY
AND BRUSH COUNTRY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING: DRY AIR HAS SURGED
INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY, RIO GRANDE PLAINS, AND UPPER RGV LATE THIS
MORNING AND NORTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 20
MPH. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT AS WELL, AND DESPITE THE COOLER AIRMASS,
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW OR MID 60S IN
THESE AREAS. AS FOR ANY RAIN, JUST ENOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TO POTENTIALLY KICK OFF A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE POPULATED
RGV ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE, WITH NO IMPACT.
OVERNIGHT, ANY RESIDUAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR RAPIDLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM MID-EVENING TO JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT LIGHTER SPEEDS. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO VARY ON LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH THE GFS MOS - DOMINATED
BY NORTH WIND THAT ARTIFICIALLY LOWERS TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH - MUCH
COLDER THAN THE OTHER SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS. MODEL BLENDS
WHICH INCORPORATE MANY MODEL TYPES AND ENSEMBLES HAVE NUDGED DOWN A
TOUCH THIS MORNING...AND ARE NOW IN LINE WITH THE OVERALL SENSE OF
THE WEATHER. THEY NOW SHOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OF 31/32 ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. THOUGH PROBABILITIES FROM THE NBM (NATIONAL
BLEND) ARE IN THE 20-40% RANGE FOR SUB-FREEZING MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES, THE EXPECTED COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AROUND
FREEZING FOR 1-3 HOURS (6 TO 8 AM) ALONG WITH WET-BULB VALUES IN THE
UPPER 20S DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING DUE TO LOW RH MAKE THE CASE FOR
THE FREEZE WARNING. FARTHER SOUTH, WE STILL EXPECT THE COLDEST
FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SO FAR, WITH WIND CHILL
RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 ACROSS THE POPULATED RGV AND LOWS BETWEEN 36
AND 42.
COASTAL HAZARDS OF HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS, SOME EXTREME, WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS FOR TIDAL RUN-UP...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES THIS EVENING AS WINDS/SEAS AND ONSHORE
"PUSH" MAINTAIN. AT THIS POINT, NOT SEEING ENOUGH FOR WATER TO REACH
THE DUNE LINE, BUT THE BEACH WILL BE REDUCED IN USABLE AREA INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: A "CHAMBER OF COMMERCE" WINTER DAY FOR THE
REGION, AS THE CHILLY MORNING QUICKLY BECOMES A PLEASANTLY COOL
AFTERNOON AS THE CANADIAN-SOURCED SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVERHEAD AND
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE VERY DRY AIRMASS
FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR AND LARGELY CALM NIGHT SETS THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CLEAR AND CHILLY START TO MONDAY. RETURN FLOW AT AND JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAY'S LEVELS, BUT FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD BE
ENOUGH FOR COLD-AIR DRAINAGE LOCATION MINOR FREEZES TO OCCUR WITH
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT FROST NORTH OF THE POPULATED RGV. EAST-SOUTHEAST
RETURN FLOW BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS (LOW-MID
70S) MONDAY AFTERNOON UNDER SOME INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS. BY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE MORE ROBUSTLY
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING DIFFLUENT AREA ALOFT MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE BIG BEND. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS NOTICEABLY MILDER
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
(SEASONAL AVERAGES ARE BETWEEN 48 AND 53). SKIES SHOULD BE OVERCAST
TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN AS THE
DAY WEARS ON AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFLUENT ZONE/WEAK IMPULSE
APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUDS WILL DIP A BIT TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING,
WITH STEADY IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER THROUGH RIPS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNSET. WITH SURF TEMPERATURE FALLING CLOSE TO 60, FEW WILL BE OUT -
BUT FOR THOSE IN WETSUITS CAUTION NEEDS TO BE TAKEN.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS A WEAK BUT NOTABLE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO,
WITH CLOUDS LOWERING FURTHER AND SUFFICIENT LIFT IS PRESENT FOR
PRECIPITATION. MODEL BLENDS AND TRENDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR LOCATIONS
THAT NEED RAIN LEAST...MAINLY THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHICH ARE LARGELY
IN DRYNESS/MODERATE DROUGHT (VS. SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT)...THOUGH
KENEDY COUNTY IS DRIER THAN THE LOWER RGV AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
SEE 0.5 TO 1" OF RAIN DURING THIS EVENT. WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL NUDGE
TEMPERATURES UP, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, AND
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL SLIDE UPWARD AS WELL. THE WAVE SHOULD MOVE
EAST AND NORTHEAST BY EARLY THURSDAY, ENDING THE RAIN THOUGH PESKY
CLOUDS MAY REMAIN THROUGH MIDDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER/MID
RGV. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE, AND
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE WELL INTO THE 70S MAY END UP
SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER - BUT STILL PLENTY COMFORTABLE FOR JANUARY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SOME NOT-
SURPRISING DIFFERENCES AS WE GET INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND, BUT
THE MAIN STORYLINE TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND ENTER NEXT WEEKEND
IS A NOTABLE WARM-UP, ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY, AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ALOFT BUILDS BACK INTO THE RGV/DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S AND MORNING LOWS
IN THE 60S (UPPER 50S RANCHLANDS), 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH SKIES REMAINING CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, THEN SHIFTING EASTERLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR WIND AND
SEAS ARE WELL IN HAND, AND WITH GRADIENT TIGHTENING A BIT FURTHER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WATER PEAKING,
EXPECT SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS TO DO THE SAME THIS EVENING INTO THE
POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS AT 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS, AND SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 10 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE SLOWLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY, AND MORE RAPIDLY BY MID MORNING AND BEYOND
AS WINDS RAPIDLY DECREASE AND SEAS/WAVES FOLLOW A BIT THEREAFTER.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A BIT
IN THE GULF TO ACCOUNT.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: LIGHT VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST, WITH
SOME INCREASE BY TUESDAY, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RECEDES TO
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL SETTLE INTO MODERATE
RANGES (3-5 FEET) FOR THE PERIOD WITH FAIR WEATHER, THOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATER ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY: SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION, WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS BECOMING THE RULE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SOME WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO OR BELOW 1 NM.
NOT EXPECTING THUNDER AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER LEGS. SEAS RISE A TOUCH BUT SHOULD HOLD
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERMINED
BY THE STRENGTH OF THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. A
REASONABLE WORST-CASE WOULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF NORTH/NORTHEAST
FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS, AND SEAS BACK UP TO 7 FEET.
CURRENT FORECAST SPLITS DIFFERENCE AMONG MODELS WITH WINDS CLOSER TO
15 KNOTS AND SEAS 4-5 FEET. THOUGH SKIES CLEAR, BOATING CONDITIONS
MAY WORSEN...SO MARINERS SHOULD KEEP TABS FOR UPDATES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
ELECTED TO HOIST A SHORT-FUSED RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS (INLAND KENEDY TO ZAPATA) BASED ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS
COMBINED WITH RH FALLING TO 8 TO 12 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
(CLOSER TO 15 PERCENT IN KENEDY), OVERTOP DRY FUELS AND IN THE
CURRENT SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT AREA. NORTH WINDS HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN 15-19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-29 MPH AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH 4 PM, BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH. BUFFERED THE
WARNING UNTIL 5 PM. RH MAY CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH 15-20 PERCENT
THEREAFTER, BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS WILL NOT MEET THE "15 (MPH) 15
(PERCENT RH) RULE.
AS FOR SUNDAY...VERY LOW RH IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN, FOLLOWING AN
OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMAL RH RECOVERY (40S PERCENT) AND AN EDGE-OF-
CURING SITUATION. FORTUNATELY, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT - BUT STILL A
MODEST CONCERN BASED ON FUEL CONDITION.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
WINTER 2025/2026 HAS BEEN RELATIVELY NON-DESCRIPT THUS FAR WHEN IT
COMES TO COLD TEMPERATURES. THERE HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF DAYS WHEN
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FELL 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, BUT FOR THE
MOST PART THAT HAS MEANT UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE RANCHLANDS
AND IN THE 40S ACROSS THE LOWER/MID VALLEY. SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BRING THE TEMPERATURES TO OR BELOW THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON, SO FAR
FOR MANY IN THE REGION.BELOW IS THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE, AND
THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TO DATE SINCE DECEMBER 1.
LOCATION JAN. 18 FORECAST COLDEST SO FAR (DATE)
BROWNSVILLE 45 46 (DEC. 31)
HARLINGEN/VALLEY 38 40 (JAN. 15)
MCALLEN/MILLER 40 46 (DEC. 7 AND JAN. 15)
EDINBURG (CITY) 39 45 (JAN. 15 LATEST)
WESLACO 39 44 (DEC. 9)
RAYMONDVILLE 38 40 (DEC. 31
RIO GRANDE CITY 36 37 (JAN. 15)
MCCOOK 36 42 (DEC. 31)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 45 65 46 72 / 10 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 38 64 39 73 / 10 0 0 0
MCALLEN 40 65 43 75 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 35 65 38 75 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 54 60 53 68 / 10 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 46 63 46 71 / 10 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ248>251.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...60-BE
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