593
FXUS64 KBRO 180505
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1105 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1053 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
- A MINOR FREEZE IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF ZAPATA, JIM HOGG,
BROOKS, AND KENEDY COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.
- DANGEROUS SURF, GUSTY WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT CLOUD COVER IS
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA, WITH CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION. CLEAR SKIES, COMBINED WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT COOLING TONIGHT, AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE
LOW 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE FREEZE WARNING
FOR ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, BROOKS AND KENEDY COUNTIES WILL BE IN EFFECT
FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM AS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW FREEZING
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE.
LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY, WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES LIKELY FALLING INTO THE TEENS. HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, SO A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT OR RED FLAG WARNING LIKELY WON'T BE NEEDED.
WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING,
ALLOWING FOR GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE 70S MONDAY AND MAY REACH
THE LOW 80S BY FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN US MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING
RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK, THOUGH THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN
OR IF THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SKIES ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, WITH CLEAR
SKIES THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
EAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH CONDITIONS FORECAST TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AROUND SUNRISE, WITH SEAS
IMPROVING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED OR REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CATION
HEADLINE FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING.
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
AND GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS MAY
BRIEFLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 45 64 45 72 / 10 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 37 64 40 73 / 10 0 0 0
MCALLEN 40 65 42 75 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 35 64 37 75 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 54 60 53 68 / 10 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 46 62 45 71 / 10 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ248>251.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...60-BE
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